363
FXUS61 KCTP 131025
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
625 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN CHECK: NOT ANYTIME SOON. EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LAST WEEK OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
*UPDATE TO INCLUDE DENSE FOG ADVISORY (DFA) FOR LANCASTER COUNTY
UNTIL 9AM. IR FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE CHANNEL AND LNS/MQS VIS AT
0.25/<0.25 MILE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DFA. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT AND
DISSIPATE BY 9-10AM AT THE LATEST.
PREDAWN/POST-SUNRISE FOG IN THE VALLEYS WILL GIVE WAY TO A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY. FCST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
ARE +2-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND +5-12 DEGREES ABOVE
THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE FOR MID SEPTEMBER. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE LOW, BUT IT WILL FEEL PRETTY WARM IN THE SUN WITH ONLY A
LIGHT WIND. WEAK TROUGHING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS COULD
PRODUCE A STRAY, LATE-DAY SHOWER/SPRINKLE PARTICULARLY OVER THE
EAST- CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST ZONES ADJACENT TO THE POCONOS, BUT
OVERALL PRECIP ODDS REMAIN <10% ACROSS THE BOARD. SKIES TREND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM NW-SE BY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING IN THE SAME FASHION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOCKS IN STABLE HIGH PRESSURE AND
ENSURES DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO
RAIN IN SIGHT. MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO INTO THE
LAST WEEK OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE
FROM NORMAL (+5-10F) IN MID 70S TO LOWER 80S DAYTIME HIGHS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH AND DRY INTO MIDWEEK. TROUGHING/CLOSED LOW MEANDERING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BY THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD; HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHERN/OVERALL EXTENT OF RAINFALL. FOR NOW, FAVOR A MAINLY
DRY FCST WITH NBM POPS GENERALLY <20%.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PA INTO THE
MORNING, THOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AT LNS AS
FOG DEVELOPS. THERE IS A LESSER CHANCE (<40%) OF FOG IMPACTING
BFD. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA-WIDE BY 15Z.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH, BUT NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...VFR EXCEPT FOR AM VALLEY FOG.
FIRE WEATHER
OUR DRY SPELL IS GETTING PRETTY LONG. THE MINRH FOR MANY DAYS
WILL DIP INTO THE 40S WITH SOME 30S OVER THE ALLEGHENIES SAT AND
SUNDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL CLIMB IN RH/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK, BUT AN EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 7 (PLUS?) DAYS. LEAVES ARE STARTING
TO FALL, WHETHER DUE TO DROUGHT STRESS OR THE REGULAR AUTUMNAL
SCHEDULE. THE LEAVES ADD MORE FINE FUELS TO THE MIX. ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN, THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THAT
TIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. SO, WE AREN'T LOOKING AT RED
FLAG CONDITIONS, BUT IT IS VERY CRISPY.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL FALL OFFICIALLY BEGINS WITH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ON MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2025 @ 2:19 P.M. EDT. THE AUTUMN 2025
SEASON WILL LAST 89 DAYS, 20 HOURS, AND 43 MINUTES. DAYLIGHT
SAVING TIME WILL END JUST AFTER HALLOWEEN WITH CLOCKS FALLING
BACK AT 2 A.M. SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2025.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ066.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO
FIRE WEATHER...DANGELO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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