612
FXUS61 KCTP 141109
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
709 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY
* LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PA
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST WEEK OF ASTRONOMICAL
SUMMER
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
07Z IR SAT LOOP SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA UNDER CLEAR
SKIES; EXPECT BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO EXIT THE SOUTHERN
TIER BY 09Z. RADIATIONAL VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AND COULD EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SUNRISE.
VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 9-10AM FOLLOWED BY SUN MIXING WITH
SCT FAIR WX CUMULUS DRIFTING NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM DAY BY MID SEPTEMBER STANDARDS WITH MAX
TEMPS 75-85F OR +5-10F ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW WITH A LIGHT BREEZE FROM THE NNE.
CRUMBLING CU THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
MORE VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS
ARE ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL TREND NIGHT OVER NIGHT WITH LOWS 45-55F
IN THE NORTHERN TIER AND 55-60F ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CPA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
REDUNDANT FORECAST TO START THE WEEK AS SEASONABLY STRONG
1024MB HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC TO
DOWNEAST MAINE -- PERPETUATING THE STAGNANT AND DRY/RAIN-FREE
WEATHER PATTERN. TUESDAY ALSO WILL BE DRY, BUT EXPECT EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUDS TO START FACTORING INTO THE
FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER/SFC LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A CLOSED LOW STATIONED SOUTH/EAST OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL
BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THAT TYPICALLY WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO BREAK DOWN. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
PROGRESSING ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH RESPECT TO AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
MIDWEST; HOWEVER, GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
NBM POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH 14Z, GIVING WAY TO MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG
SIGNAL IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS AT TAF SITES IS LOW. MODEL RH PROFILES
WOULD SUGGEST THAT BFD AND IPT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING IFR VISIBILITIES AND THE 00Z HREF HAS A 40-60% CHANCE OF
VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW 1/2SM AT BFD.
OUTLOOK...
MON-TUE... VFR WITH AM VALLEY FOG.
WED-THU...GENERALLY VFR, SOME SHRA POSSIBLE (20-40%) SE PA.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL FALL OFFICIALLY BEGINS WITH THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ON MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2025 @ 2:19 P.M. EDT. THE AUTUMN 2025
SEASON WILL LAST 89 DAYS, 20 HOURS, AND 43 MINUTES. DAYLIGHT
SAVING TIME WILL END JUST AFTER HALLOWEEN WITH CLOCKS FALLING
BACK AT 2 A.M. SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2025.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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