281
FXUS61 KCTP 140522
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
122 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
* PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
* HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WITH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
NORTHERN CENTER OF SLOW MOVING AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 100 KM EAST OF KOXB AT 15Z WHILE
A COMPACT UPPER VORT CENTER WAS DROPPING SWD FROM THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS TO HELP MAINTAIN/CONSOLIDATE THE MEAN 500 MB TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
SEVERAL BANDS OF GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WERE SPIRALING WWD
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROWN BACK INTO PA ON
THE FLOW AROUND THE COMPLEX SFC LOW OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
CAUSE MORE RAIN FOR EASTERN AND CENTRAL PA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH, BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE EAST
COULD RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH.
VERY LITTLE RAIN, IF ANY, WILL FALL WEST OF ROUTE 219.
THE RAIN AND CLOUDS AND COOL/DAMMING FLOW WILL KEEP THE TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL TODAY OVER ALL BUT THE NWRN 3 COUNTIES. WARREN
SHOULD END UP 5F ABOVE NORMAL, WHILE YORK WILL BE ABOUT 10F
COOLER THAN NORMAL. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE 10F COLDER THAN
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
5H HEIGHTS RISE TONIGHT, SIGNALING THE END OF THE RAIN. THE
CLOUDS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE DO LAST UNTIL CLOSE TO SUNRISE,
THOUGH. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST
CONCURRENTLY WITH AN EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK FROM MIXING. BY
THE END OF THE DAY, EVEN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF CLEARING. TEMPS DO STAY MILD (5-10F > NORMALS) TONIGHT
UNDER THE CLOUDS. THE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL THEN HELP US
CLIMB BACK TO TEMPS SEEN ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
BASED ON THE LATEST HREF AND ITS MEMBERS, POPS WILL BE NIL
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING SE THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
COOLER AND VERY DRY AIR (WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.7 OF AN INCH)
WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE LARGE 1026 MB SFC
HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
CAROLINA COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE DRYNESS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 35
TO 40 DEG F RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, THEN SETTLING INTO THE RANGE OF
25-35F THURSDAY AFTN.
THE WIND COULD BE GUSTY ENOUGH (20-25 MPH) TO CREATE SOME
CONCERN FOR OUR FIRE-WEATHER SENSITIVE PARTNERS WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY WITH THE SUBSIDING BRANCH (LEFT REAR
QUADRANT) OF A 90 KT UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.
IT WILL ALSO BE DRY/CLEAR ENOUGH TO CAUSE FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SE (WHERE THE OFFICIAL GROWING SEASON STILL
CONTINUES), MAINLY ON FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO 65-75F MAXES ON SATURDAY THANKS TO THE
SRLY FLOW KICKING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC HIGH (AND
BENEATH THE CREST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
STATES). SAT NIGHT WILL FEATURE THICKENING CLOUDS WITH A RETURN
OF RAIN TO THE NW MTNS AS STRONG AND SLIGHTLY NEG TILT
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MDT TO STG LARGE SCALE LIFT MOVES
ACROSS THE GLAKES AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY 00Z
MONDAY.
12Z MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A FEW TO SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD OF MDT TO STRONG DEEP- LAYER SHEAR AND UVVEL ACCOMPANIES
THE SHARP LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD FRONT AND PERIOD OF STRONGEST
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE - JUST AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF THE NEGATIVE
TILT TROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LOW CIGS ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT INTO MID TO LATE MORNING.
A DEEP STORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD LATER TODAY, AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS
BREAKING UP, WITH VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS QUITE DRY, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OFF THE GREAT LAKES.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
OVERALL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS GUSTY, BUT THERE REMAINS A FEW
HOURS ON TUESDAY WHERE WINDS COULD GUST BETWEEN 15-20 KTS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. MVFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY HANG
ON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL
GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
WED...A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS MAINLY EARLY/NORTH WITH COLD
FRONT, OTHERWISE VFR AND BECOMING BREEZY.
THU...VFR, STILL BREEZY.
FRI-SAT...VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
AVIATION...MARTIN/BOWEN
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