696  
FXUS61 KCTP 140959  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
559 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
* GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY MARKS THE START OF ANOTHER  
PROLONGED DRY/RAIN-FREE STRETCH THROUGH SATURDAY  
* SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BOTTOM THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TREND  
WARMER/WELL ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND  
* RAIN IS MOST LIKELY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A  
BREEZY COOL DOWN TO START NEXT WEEK  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING  
COASTAL STORM ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY (SLOWLY) DECREASE  
THROUGH THE DAY. INITIAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO OPTIMISTIC ON  
THE CLEARING, SO WE WERE KEEN TO RAMP UP AND PROLONG THE CLOUDS  
(PERHAPS GETTING STUCK UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION)  
UTILIZING A SKY COVER BLEND WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARD THE 90TH  
PERCENTILE. MORE CLOUDS COULD ALSO KNOCK DOWN MAX TEMPS BY A FEW  
DEGREES FROM CURRENT FCST HIGHS IN THE 60-70F RANGE OR ABOUT  
+10F WARMER VS. YESTERDAY.  
 
FOLLOWING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY EARLY EVENING, THE LATEST  
HREF FAVORS ANOTHER UPTICK IN LAYERED CLOUD COVER (FROM NW->SE)  
LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD INCREASE  
APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH  
THROUGH NY AND ARRIVAL OF A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT.  
BEST CHANCE (~10%) OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT IS DOWNWIND OF LAKE  
ERIE BASED ON THE LATEST NBM.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
COOLER AND VERY DRY AIR (PWAT VALUES -1 TO -2SD OR <= 0.4") WILL  
ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS WILL SEND MAX/MIN TEMPS ON A SEASONAL  
DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY WHICH SHOULD REACH A NADIR THURSDAY NIGHT  
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 25-40F RANGE. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY  
BE NEEDED THU NIGHT INTO AM FRIDAY FOR THE 7 COUNTIES STILL  
ACTIVE IN THE GROWING SEASON IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY  
(SEE LATEST PNSCTP FOR UPDATE ON GROWING SEASON).  
 
THE DAYTIME DRYNESS WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY WITH ROOM FOR DOWNSIDE  
TO MINRH IN THE 25-35% RANGE. 20-25 MPH WIND GUSTS PARTICULARLY  
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA COULD CREATE SOME CONCERN  
FOR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY DEAD FINE  
FUELS CAN CURE POST THE COOL/WET/DANK COLUMBUS DAY AND WEEKEND  
RAINFALL.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
MILD TREND RAMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS 65-75F  
BEHIND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF  
DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO  
FAVOR DRY/RAIN-FREE WX THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND WELL DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD TAP  
GULF MOISTURE MOVING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BRING RAIN/SHOWERS TO CPA SUNDAY  
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. TIMING COULD EASILY SHIFT  
+/- 12HR WITH GFS AND EC SHOWING THEIR TYPICAL FAST/SLOW BIAS AT  
THIS RANGE, BUT OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT  
SHOWING THE FRONTAL RAINFALL ON SUNDAY TRANSITIONING TO A COOLER,  
BREEZY POST-FRONTAL NW FLOW TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
LOW CIGS ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL  
LINGER INTO MID TO LATE MORNING.  
 
A DEEP STORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE  
EASTWARD LATER TODAY, AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS  
BREAKING UP, WITH VFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFT.  
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA ON  
WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. THE AIRMASS  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS QUITE DRY, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH  
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OFF THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WED...A CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS MAINLY EARLY/NORTH WITH COLD  
FRONT, OTHERWISE VFR AND BECOMING BREEZY.  
 
THU...VFR, STILL BREEZY.  
 
FRI-SAT...VFR.  
 
 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL  
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL  
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL  
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL  
AVIATION...MARTIN  
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