775
FXUS61 KCTP 160513
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
113 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SEASONABLY COOL & DRY WITH NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WED-FRI
* MODEST WARMING TREND/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
* WEEKEND STARTS DRY AND ENDS WET; BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS
OF RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
GRADIENT WIND STILL GOING AT THIS HOUR, AND MAY NOT DROP OFF
ENTIRELY OVERNIGHT, ESP ON THE HILL TOPS. MIGHT BE TOUGH TO GET
FROST DUE TO THE WIND/MIXING. A SMALL PATCH OF MID CLOUDS OVER
THE CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING S, AND SHOULDN'T
MATTER MUCH. ANYWAY, THE SHELTERED VALLEYS PROBABLY WILL, AND
WE'VE ALREADY GOT IT IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS DON'T LOOK FAR OFF-
TRACK.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
SUNNY AND SEASONABLY COOL/BREEZY ON THURSDAY. DAYTIME DRYNESS
WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY WITH ROOM FOR DOWNSIDE TO MINRH IN THE
25-35% RANGE. P-GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING STORM IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS FOCUSED
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW HUMIDITY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE FIRE WX DAY
WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD (SPS CONSIDERATIONS
PENDING FINE DEAD FUEL MOISTURE ASSESSMENT AND COORDINATION
WITH PA BOF/DCNR PARTNERS).
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH A SHORT TERM NADIR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS PROBABLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF CPA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FCST LOW TEMPS RANGE FROM 25F IN
THE USUALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE NW ALLEGHENIES TO AROUND 40F IN
THE HARRISBURG METRO. FROST ADVY IS LIKELY GOING TO BE NEEDED
FOR SOME (IF NOT ALL) OF THE 7 ZONES IN THE LSV WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE; WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
IN THE HWO. AGAIN, NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR ZONES WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS ENDED.
SFC RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD FRIDAY REACHING EASTERN
PA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT
PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ON THE
INCREASE OVER WESTERN PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WAA PATTERN
AND LLJ RAMPS UP INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TRENDING MILDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS 60-70F
BEHIND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE. LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
FAVOR MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB FLOW PATTERN, A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH AND WELL DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD TAP GULF MOISTURE
MOVING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY BRING RAIN TO CPA SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
ONSET TIMING OF RAIN IS FAIRLY UNIFORM AMONGST THE GUIDANCE
WHICH CORRELATES WELL TO NBM, BUT THE PRECIP DURATION AND
INTENSITY BECOME LESS CERTAIN WITH TIME GIVEN THE GROWING MODEL
SPREAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTERESTINGLY, THE 15/01Z NBM
CLUSTERS WELL WITH THE 15/00Z EC AND 15/06Z WPC QPF GENERALLY
AGREES AS WELL. THE LAST 2 RUNS OF THE EC REMAINED VERY
DEEP/CLOSED AND MUCH SLOWER WHICH IS A STARK CONTRAST FROM THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE DETAILS GET
IRONED OUT AT SHORTER FORECAST LENGTHS, THE SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT
WEEK TIMEFRAME WILL FEATURE THE HIGHEST ODDS OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WINDS KICKING UP AT TIMES SINCE I CAME IN AT 1130 PM.
ADJUSTED THE FCST FOR THIS. ALSO THE EVENING FORECASTER HAD
LLWS IN FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS.
ANYWAY, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ONCE SUN IS UP
HERE THIS MORNING. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO GO A BIT STRONGER WITH
THE WINDS THAN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE HAD, OR THE GUIDANCE.
THIS BASED ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING A BIT STRONGER TODAY,
THAN EARLIER. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN SOME AFTER SUNSET
TODAY.
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE SUNDAY, AS A COLD
FRONT NEARS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...VFR.
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA. LOW PROBABILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWEST PA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ036-057-059-
063>066.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/GARTNER
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
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