517
FXUS61 KCTP 170330
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SEASONABLY COOL DAYS AND CRISP AUTUMN NIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY
* MODEST WARMING TREND/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
* WEEKEND STARTS DRY AND ENDS WET: BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
CURRENT SATELLITE OUTLINES CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH,
WITH SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AT THIS
TIME. COMBINATION OF NBM/HREF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES OUTLINE
INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN THE NEAR-TERM. CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER WILL LIMIT SOME FOG POTENTIAL; HOWEVER, SOME
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE DEEPEST VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN TIER (ESP
CLOSEST TO THE PA-NY BORDER) CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FROST
FREEZE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW PA TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE OVERNIGHT FOR ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS
ACTIVE. LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT COULD LOWER THESE CONCERNS;
HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE WINDS DECREASING
OVERNIGHT AND STILL WARRANTS SOME THREAT FOR FROST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SFC RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD FRIDAY REACHING EASTERN
PA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONE MORE CHILLY NIGHT
PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS ARE
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY/DAY WITH FCST HIGHS 55-65F. HIGH
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WAA PATTERN RAMPS UP HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
500MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH MILDER AIR
SURGING INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SSW 850MB
LLJ. LEAD PERTURBATION IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY COULD TRIGGER SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PA EARLY ON SATURDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF LIFTING WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A DRY
AND MILDER START TO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS +5-10 DEGREES WARMER
VS. FRIDAY. WITH WINDS COMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY, IT WILL BE
ADVANTAGEOUS TO GET ANY LEAF PEEPING ACTIVITIES DONE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT LEAF OFF OCCURS.
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A DEEPENING/SEASONABLY STRONG
SUB-1000MB SFC LOW INTO LOWER MI BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS STRENGTHEN IN-KIND AND ADVECT HI PW AIR >1" NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GULF. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASING ODDS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NW 1/2-1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NOTICEABLY MILDER READINGS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS TRENDING +7-15 DEGREES WARMER VS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IN TERMS OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME HORIZON WITH REGARDS TO ANY
SEVERE/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT WITH
FAVORABLE SHEAR IN PLACE. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN INSTABILITY. LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LOWER
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT; HOWEVER, IF HIGHER INSTABILITY
ENDS UP PANNING OUT, SOME SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING
RISK, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS NW PA. THAT BEING SAID, AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY UNDER D2 DROUGHT SO A LONGER-DURATION
RAINFALL MIGHT TREND MORE BENEFICIAL, THUS WOULD NEED HEAVY
RAINFALL TO FALL IN A VERY QUICK TIMEFRAME TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD
ISSUES.
AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST, RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR TUE-WED ALSO IN
QUESTION AND IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED/DEPARTURE OF THE
SUN-MON SYSTEM. EC IS AGAIN ON THE DEEP END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE; MAX POPS INTO MIDWEEK ARE PAINTED ACROSS THE WESTERN &
NORTHERN MTNS. REGARDLESS, SIGNAL FOR A WET PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MITIGATE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE IS VERY HIGH (80-90%) CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS ALL CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AS OF 2320Z/720PM EDT OUTLINE
DECREASING WINDS WITH ALL AIRFIELDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 10
KTS SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. RECENT NBM
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR LLWS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN AIRSPACE, NOTABLY CLOSER TO KZER
AND STAYING FURTHER EAST OF MDT/LNS, THUS HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OUT
OF THE 00Z TAFS THIS CYCLE. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO AN
INCREASING TREND IN MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY;
HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CEILINGS ABOVE
10KFT, THUS NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST PA.
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA. LOW PROBABILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWEST PA.
TUE...LINGERING SHOWERS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ036-057-059-
063>066.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF/NPB
AVIATION...BAUCO/NPB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page