893
FXUS61 KCTP 170922
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
522 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
* A MODEST WARMING TREND AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND
* THE WEEKEND STARTS DRY AND ENDS WET: BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN OHIO NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN QUEBEC, CANADA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND THE SUSQ VALLEY EARLY TODAY.
SOME VALLEY FOG WILL FORM EARLY TODAY THROUGHOUT THE DEEPEST
VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN TIER (ESP CLOSE TO THE PA-NY BORDER).
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 32 IN THE
PERENNIAL RURAL VALLEY COLD SPOTS TO THE LOW 40S IN THE LARGE
METRO AREAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE FROST ADVISORY THAT REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z TODAY FOR ZONES IN OUR SE CWA WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE.
ELSEWHERE, LOWS EARLY TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW PA TO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE OHIO/PA BORDER THIS EVENING
AND THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SE AHEAD OF IT FROM THE
UPPER GLAKES WILL LOWER/THICKEN UP THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE DRIFTS TO EASTERN PA
AND WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST DEEPENS JUST AHEAD OF A SFC
WARM FRONT.
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE STEADY TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED
TO THURSDAY AND IN THE 55-65F RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
SFC RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND REACHES EASTERN PA
BY 12Z SATURDAY.
500MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH MILDER AIR
SURGING INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SSW 850MB
LLJ. LEAD PERTURBATION WITH A SHOT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/UVVEL (AHEAD OF THE SFC WARM FRONT) COULD TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PA EARLY SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A DRY AND MILDER START TO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS +5-10 DEGREES WARMER VS FRIDAY. WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY,
THEN NWRLY WINDS COMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESPECTIVELY, IT WILL
BE ADVANTAGEOUS TO GET ANY LEAF PEEPING ACTIVITIES DONE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT LEAF OFF OCCURS.
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A DEEPENING/SEASONABLY STRONG
SUB-1000MB SFC LOW INTO LOWER MI BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS STRENGTHEN IN-KIND AND ADVECT HI PW AIR >1" NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GULF. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASING ODDS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NW 1/2-1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NOTICEABLY MILDER READINGS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS TRENDING +7-15 DEGREES WARMER VS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IN TERMS OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME HORIZON WITH REGARDS TO ANY
SEVERE/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT WITH
FAVORABLE SHEAR IN PLACE. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS
TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN INSTABILITY. LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LOWER
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT; HOWEVER, IF HIGHER INSTABILITY
ENDS UP PANNING OUT, SOME SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING
RISK, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS NW PA. THAT BEING SAID, AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY UNDER D2 DROUGHT SO A LONGER-DURATION
RAINFALL MIGHT TREND MORE BENEFICIAL, THUS WOULD NEED HEAVY
RAINFALL TO FALL IN A VERY QUICK TIMEFRAME TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD
ISSUES.
AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST, RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR TUE-WED ALSO IN
QUESTION AND IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED/DEPARTURE OF THE
SUN-MON SYSTEM. EC IS AGAIN ON THE DEEP END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE; MAX POPS INTO MIDWEEK ARE PAINTED ACROSS THE WESTERN &
NORTHERN MTNS. REGARDLESS, SIGNAL FOR A WET PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MITIGATE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR FIRE
WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THERE IS VERY HIGH (80-90%) CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS ALL CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE TO 8-12 KTS AND THEN
DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO
AN INCREASING TREND IN MID- TO- HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY; HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CEILINGS
ABOVE 10KFT, THUS NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED DESPITE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST PA.
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA. LOW PROBABILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWEST PA.
TUE...LINGERING SHOWERS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ036-057-059-
063>066.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/NPB
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF/NPB
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF/NPB
AVIATION...NPB/TYBURSKI
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