569  
FXUS61 KCTP 171119  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
719 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
* SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
* A MODEST WARMING TREND AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS  
WEEKEND  
* THE WEEKEND STARTS DRY AND ENDS WET: BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS  
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY  
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN OHIO NORTH  
THROUGH WESTERN QUEBEC, CANADA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND  
ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND THE SUSQ VALLEY EARLY TODAY.  
 
SOME VALLEY FOG WILL FORM EARLY TODAY THROUGHOUT THE DEEPEST  
VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN TIER (ESP CLOSE TO THE PA-NY BORDER).  
 
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 32 IN THE  
PERENNIAL RURAL VALLEY COLD SPOTS TO THE LOW 40S IN THE LARGE  
METRO AREAS. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE FROST ADVISORY THAT REMAINS  
IN EFFECT UNTIL 13Z TODAY FOR ZONES IN OUR SE CWA WHERE THE  
GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE.  
 
ELSEWHERE, LOWS EARLY TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S  
ACROSS THE LAURELS AND NW PA TO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION.  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE OHIO/PA BORDER THIS EVENING  
AND THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING SE AHEAD OF IT FROM THE  
UPPER GLAKES WILL LOWER/THICKEN UP THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY  
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE DRIFTS TO EASTERN PA  
AND WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST DEEPENS JUST AHEAD OF A SFC  
WARM FRONT.  
 
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE STEADY TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED  
TO THURSDAY AND IN THE 55-65F RANGE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SFC RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND REACHES EASTERN PA  
BY 12Z SATURDAY.  
 
500MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH MILDER AIR  
SURGING INTO THE AREA BEHIND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SSW 850MB  
LLJ. LEAD PERTURBATION WITH A SHOT OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM  
ADVECTION/UVVEL (AHEAD OF THE SFC WARM FRONT) COULD TRIGGER  
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PA EARLY SATURDAY.  
 
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A DRY AND MILDER START TO THE WEEKEND  
WITH HIGHS +5-10 DEGREES WARMER VS FRIDAY. WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY,  
THEN NWRLY WINDS COMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY RESPECTIVELY, IT WILL  
BE ADVANTAGEOUS TO GET ANY LEAF PEEPING ACTIVITIES DONE ON  
SATURDAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT LEAF OFF OCCURS.  
 
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY  
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A DEEPENING/SEASONABLY STRONG  
SUB-1000MB SFC LOW INTO LOWER MI BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND  
FIELDS STRENGTHEN IN-KIND AND ADVECT HI PW AIR >1" NORTHEASTWARD  
FROM THE GULF. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS INCREASING ODDS FOR  
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NW 1/2-1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT  
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NOTICEABLY MILDER READINGS  
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS TRENDING +7-15 DEGREES WARMER VS.  
FRIDAY NIGHT THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
IN TERMS OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF  
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME HORIZON WITH REGARDS TO ANY  
SEVERE/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH  
AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT WITH  
FAVORABLE SHEAR IN PLACE. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS  
TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN INSTABILITY. LINGERING  
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LOWER  
INSTABILITY AND SEVERE THREAT; HOWEVER, IF HIGHER INSTABILITY  
ENDS UP PANNING OUT, SOME SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING  
RISK, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING ABOUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE  
ACROSS NW PA. THAT BEING SAID, AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVIER  
RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY UNDER D2 DROUGHT SO A LONGER-DURATION  
RAINFALL MIGHT TREND MORE BENEFICIAL, THUS WOULD NEED HEAVY  
RAINFALL TO FALL IN A VERY QUICK TIMEFRAME TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD  
ISSUES.  
 
AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST, RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INTO  
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR TUE-WED ALSO IN  
QUESTION AND IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED/DEPARTURE OF THE  
SUN-MON SYSTEM. EC IS AGAIN ON THE DEEP END OF THE GUIDANCE  
ENVELOPE; MAX POPS INTO MIDWEEK ARE PAINTED ACROSS THE WESTERN &  
NORTHERN MTNS. REGARDLESS, SIGNAL FOR A WET PATTERN OVER THE  
NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MITIGATE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR FIRE  
WEATHER IN THE NEAR-TERM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (>90%) OF VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH  
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. NO FOG OR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY  
OCCURRED THIS MORNING. LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILES DO INDICATE  
LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION AROUND 30-35KTS NEAR KLNS SO  
ADDED LLWS FOR THE SHORT TERM.  
 
OTHERWISE, A SHIELD OF HIGH CIRRUS CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL  
MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE IS  
LIMITED THREAT (<10%) THAT CEILINGS WOULD LOWER TO LESS THAN  
FL100 MUCH LATER IN THE PERIOD.  
 
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY 15Z AS SUNSHINE HELPS MIX DOWN  
WINDS AROUND 5,000 FT. THESE WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SAT...VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST PA.  
 
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA. LOW PROBABILITY OF A  
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWEST PA.  
 
TUE...LINGERING SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ036-057-059-  
063>066.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/BANGHOFF  
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/NPB  
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/BANGHOFF/NPB  
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF/NPB  
AVIATION...NPB/TYBURSKI  
 
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