911  
FXUS61 KCTP 180914  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
514 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
* INCREASING CLOUDS WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES  
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER NORTH CENTRAL PA  
* CLOUDS BREAK FOR P.M. SUN WITH NOTICEABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES  
TO START THE WEEKEND  
* THE WEEKEND ENDS WET/WINDY WITH GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON-SUNDAY NIGHT; TRENDING BREEZY/COOLER INTO MONDAY  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
INCREASING DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED WEAK  
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS LEADING TO FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ALTOCU AND  
HIGH-BASED STRATOCU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA EARLY THIS  
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, BRIEF AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS  
WERE DRIFTING ESE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA, WITH  
MOST OF THEM NOT HEAVY ENOUGH OR LASTING LONG ENOUGH TO DO MUCH  
MORE THAN DAMPEN THE GROUND WITH 0.01-003 OF AN INCH. THE HIGHER  
END AMOUNTS MENTIONED HERE WILL OCCUR ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY NEAR  
THE PA/ NY BORDER.  
 
BY 16-18Z TODAY, THICKER CIRRUS, THEN ALTOCU CLOUDS WILL DRIFT  
TO THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST AS SMALL SCALE AND  
RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGING MOVES OVER THE COMMONWEALTH AND A REGION  
OF SUBTLE DESCENT BENEATH THE THERMALLY INDIRECT, RIGHT EXIT  
REGION OF A 300-500 MB JET MOVES NE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
TEMPS WILL START TODAY +10 TO +15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN FRIDAY  
MORNING - IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F.  
 
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL CREATE WEAK LLVL TEMP  
ADVECTION AND COMBINE WITH THE SUNSHINE AND MILD START TO  
BOOST MAX TEMPS +7-15F HIGHER VS. FRIDAY INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW  
70S RESPECTIVELY, FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CWA. THESE TEMPS  
WILL BE (+10-15F ABOVE CLIMO ALONG THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND  
LAUREL HIGHLANDS).  
 
LOOK FOR VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS  
TONIGHT, WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS COMPARED  
TO EARLY SAT MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT  
LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST ON  
SUNDAY. A DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW (SUB-1000MB) ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN CANADA  
TOWARD JAMES BAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL  
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SUPPORT A MODESTLY MOIST  
AIR MASS INTO PA. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SEASONABLY STRONG  
SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR  
ONE OR MORE LINES/BANDS OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS (SHALLOW  
CONVECTIVE FRONTAL RAIN BANDS) SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE  
FIRST PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE SETUP IS A COMMON TRANSITION SEASON LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR  
ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINES/FRONTAL BANDS. PERIODS OF HEAVY  
RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE FORWARD  
MOTION, WE FEEL THAT THAT FLOODING RISK IS PRETTY LOW OR ON THE  
NUISANCE SIDE (DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR).  
PRIMARY RISK WOULD BE IN URBAN OR RESIDENTIAL AREAS PARTICULARLY  
WHERE LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS. IN FACT, WPC TRIMMED BACK THE  
MRGL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN TO THE WESTERN MTNS AND NORTHERN  
TIER OF PA IN OUR CWA, BUT SPC EXPANDED THE MRGL SVR RISK AREA  
SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF CTP'S CWA.  
 
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3-6MB FALL/RISE COUPLET INDICATES  
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE LLVL  
FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST. WE ADJUSTED NBM WIND GUSTS HIGHER TO MAX  
OUT IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE OR BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR  
NOW. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST "WINDY" PERIOD THIS FALL WITH THE  
POTENTIAL TO BLOW LEAVES AND UNSECURED OBJECTS (HALLOWEEN  
DECORATIONS) AROUND.  
 
MAX TEMPS TOP-OUT IN THE 65-75F RANGE IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY  
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80F IN THE LSV. EXPECT  
A STEADY DROP IN TEMPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES SUNDAY  
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS -10F COLDER VS. SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
BREEZY AND COOLER TO START NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING  
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ARE  
FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND WILL AMPLIFY THE 24HR  
COOL DOWN/MAXT CHANGE OF -10 TO -20 DEGREES VS. SUNDAY.  
 
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE  
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AND QUITE SHOWERY  
(ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER NW PA AND THE WESTERN  
ALLEGHENIES) UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGHING AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT THE  
THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE FOUND OVER THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. I GUESS IT'S THAT TIME OF  
YEAR...  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL  
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT. ULTIMATELY AN  
OVERCAST DECK NEAR 10,000FT AGL IS ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE  
REGION BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE  
(>90%) IN NO RESTRICTIONS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO THE  
INCREASING CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THIS  
TAF PACKAGE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY CALM OVERNIGHT AS  
WELL.  
 
THE ONLY AREA THAT COULD SEE SOME CONCERN WOULD BE OVER NORTHWESTERN  
PA NEAR BFD. SCATTERED RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OFF THE COAST  
OF LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT, AND A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN INCLUDED  
WITH BFD'S TAF TO REFLECT THE ISOLATED CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THAT  
AIRFIELD.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
SAT...VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST PA.  
 
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA. LOW PROBABILITY OF A  
THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHWEST PA.  
 
TUE-WED...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL  
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL  
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL  
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL  
AVIATION...GARTNER/TYBURSKI  
 
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