793
FXUS61 KCTP 181831
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
231 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
* PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CPA
* THE WEEKEND ENDS WET/WINDY WITH GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT
* REMAINING BREEZY AND TRENDING COOLER MONDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING
OFF THROUGH THE DAY; STAYING SHOWERY AND COOL THROUGH THURSDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT FALL/MID-OCTOBER AFTERNOON-EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL PA UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOOK FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS COMPARED TO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING (MID 40S TO MID 50S OR +10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. A DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW (SUB-1000MB) ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN CANADA
TOWARD JAMES BAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND SUPPORT A MODESTLY MOIST
AIR MASS INTO PA. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SEASONABLY STRONG
SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ONE OR MORE LINES/BANDS OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS (SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE FRONTAL RAIN BANDS) LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SETUP IS A COMMON TRANSITION SEASON LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS 50-60 MPH ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINES/FRONTAL BANDS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE FORWARD MOTION, WE FEEL THAT THE FLOODING RISK IS
PRETTY LOW OR ON THE NUISANCE SIDE (DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO A
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR). PRIMARY RISK WOULD BE IN URBAN OR
RESIDENTIAL AREAS PARTICULARLY WHERE LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS.
WE COORDINATED WITH WPC/PBZ ON A FURTHER REDUCTION TO THE D2
MRGL RISK ERO WHICH NOW ONLY INCLUDES THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS/SOUTHWEST PA.
SPC SHIFTED THE MRGL RISK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
18/1730UTC UPDATE, REMOVING THE NORTHERN TIER OF CPA. DEWPOINTS
FCST TO ONLY REACH THE 50S AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS, THE CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS COULD AID DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF 40-50KT LLVL FLOW TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
50-60 MPH GUSTS WITHIN THE STRONGEST LINEAR SEGMENTS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3-6MB FALL/RISE COUPLET INDICATES
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE LLVL
FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST. WE CONTINUED TO ADJUST NBM WIND GUSTS
HIGHER TO MAX OUT IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE OR BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST "WINDY" PERIOD THIS
FALL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BLOW LEAVES AND UNSECURED OBJECTS
(HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS) AROUND.
MAX TEMPS TOP-OUT IN THE 65-75F RANGE IN MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80F IN THE LSV. EXPECT
A STEADY DROP IN TEMPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS -10F COLDER VS. SATURDAY NIGHT.
WRAP-AROUND RAIN ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF
AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BREEZY
AND COOLER TO START NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ARE FORECAST
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND WILL AMPLIFY THE 24HR COOL
DOWN/MAXT CHANGE OF -10 TO -20 DEGREES VS. SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AND QUITE SHOWERY
(ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER NW PA AND THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES) UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT THE THE
FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE FOUND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. I GUESS IT'S THAT TIME OF
YEAR...
COLDEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST WED-THU WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW
LATE OCTOBER CLIMO. MINIMUM TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BOTTOM
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST RISK IN THE LSV WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. EXPECT A MODEST/SEASONABLE WARMUP
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE STORY OF THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 20KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS HOURS TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNDOWN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT, BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN BUILDING
BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
TOMORROW. CLOUD DECKS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TOMORROW MORNING
AHEAD OF CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE SLOW SPEED OF
THE SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL
PA UNTIL AFTER 18Z. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AT
ANY SITE THAT OBSERVES CONVECTION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALSO TIGHTEN TOMORROW, SO ANTICIPATE NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTY
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE W/ GUSTY WINDS. A LINE OF SHRA
IS EXPECTED, LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER.
TUE-WED...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BOWEN
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