619
FXUS61 KCTP 190935
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
535 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* THE WEEKEND WILL TURN WINDY THEN WET WITH GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING IN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT
* REMAINING BREEZY AND TRENDING COOLER MONDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING
OFF DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS; STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY AND COOL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF
THE STATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BANDS OF CIRRUS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE LLVL
P-GRADIENT THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA DURING THE EARLY TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY A QUICK RAMP UP OF WIND AFTER 16Z. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 5010 KTS THIS MORNING THEN 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WELL-MIXED LAYER INCREASES 4 TO 5 KFT
AGL.
WE'LL START THE DAY SOMEWHAT MILD WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY TO THE MID 50S AND UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS - OR +8-20 DEGREES F ABOVE CLIMO.
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. A DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW (SUB-1000MB) ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN CANADA
TOWARD JAMES BAY. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE SEASONABLY
STRONG SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR ONE OR MORE LINES/BANDS OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS (SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE FRONTAL RAIN BANDS) LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING HIGH RES CAMS FOR LATER TODAY, THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHOWERS (FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED NCFRB) WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS OF PA BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z THEN
OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS BETWEEN 22Z - 01Z MONDAY, AND FINALLY OVER
THE SUSQ VALLEY FROM 02-05Z MONDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE UNDER 500 J/KG OF
SFC-BASED/MU CAPE. IN FACT, CAPE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH 300
J/KG. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG WITH
THE CONVECTION FEEDING INTO 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AS THE
NCFRB MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, AND 200-250
M2/S2 ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA.
THIS HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT HAS HELPED SPC MAINTAIN A
CONSISTENT STANCE OF PAINTING BASICALLY OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH A
MRGL RISK OF SEVERE TSRA (WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR BOWS IN THE NCFRB
COULD TAP/FOCUS ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR TO PRODUCE A FEW OCCURRENCES
OF A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO, MAINLY OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AND SPC IN COLLAB WITH MID
ATLANTIC WFOS - HAS INCLUDED A 2% TOR RISK FOR OUR FAR SE ZONES
(AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST INTO KLWX AND KPHI'S CWAS).
THE SETUP IS A COMMON TRANSITION SEASON LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS 50-60 MPH ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINES/FRONTAL BANDS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE FORWARD MOTION, WE FEEL THAT THE FLOODING RISK IS
PRETTY LOW OR ON THE NUISANCE SIDE (DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO A
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR). PRIMARY RISK WOULD BE IN URBAN OR
RESIDENTIAL AREAS PARTICULARLY WHERE LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS.
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 65-75F RANGE IN MOST
AREAS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80F IN THE LOWER
SUSQ REGION. EXPECT A STEADY DROP IN TEMPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS -10F COLDER VS. SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3-6MB FALL/RISE COUPLET INDICATES
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE LLVL
FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST ON MONDAY
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST "WINDY" PERIOD THIS FALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BLOW LEAVES AND UNSECURED OBJECTS (HALLOWEEN
DECORATIONS) AROUND.
WRAP-AROUND RAIN ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF
AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BREEZY
AND COOLER TO START NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ARE
FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND WILL AMPLIFY THE 24HR
COOL DOWN/MAXT CHANGE OF -10 TO -20 DEGREES VS. SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AND QUITE SHOWERY
(ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER NW PA AND THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES) UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT THE THE
FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE FOUND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. I GUESS IT'S THAT TIME OF
YEAR...
COLDEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST WED-THU WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW
LATE OCTOBER CLIMO. MINIMUM TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BOTTOM
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST RISK IN THE LSV WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. EXPECT A MODEST/SEASONABLE WARMUP
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION (>70%) DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO TRY TO TIME ANY BRIEF INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AS IT MAY STRUGGLE TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR IN THAT
TIME FRAME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WINDS WILL INCREASE APPRECIABLY AROUND
2,000 FT AGL BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA WITH A STEADIER LIGHT RAIN AFTER
00Z. THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR IN MOST LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE W/ GUSTY WINDS. A LINE OF SHRA IS
EXPECTED.
TUE-THUR...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TYBURSKI
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