336
FXUS61 KCTP 191737
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
137 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY WILL FEATURE STRONG WINDS AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
* A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLIDE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THIS LINE.
* REMAINING BREEZY AND TRENDING COOLER MONDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING
OFF DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS; STAYING MAINLY
CLOUDY AND COOL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF
THE STATE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 65-75F RANGE IN MOST AREAS,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80F IN THE LOWER SUSQ
REGION. EXPECT A STEADY DROP IN TEMPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS 10F COLDER VS. SATURDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THERE REMAINS TWO AREAS TO WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST
IS THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING DOWN OF THE 850MB
LLJ. THIS IS PROMOTING STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. THESE
NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LEADING
UP TO THE ARRIVAL OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THE COLD FRONT.
THE SECOND IS AN AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH THAT WILL TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT THE SFC, A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
SEASONABLY STRONG SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD AND
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ONE OR MORE LINES/BANDS OF GUSTY RAIN
SHOWERS (SHALLOW CONVECTIVE FRONTAL RAIN BANDS) LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING HIGH RES CAMS FOR LATER TODAY, THE LEADING EDGE OF
SHOWERS (FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED NCFRB) WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS OF PA BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z THEN
OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS BETWEEN 22Z - 01Z MONDAY, AND FINALLY OVER
THE SUSQ VALLEY FROM 02-05Z MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE UNDER 500 J/KG OF SFC- BASED/MU CAPE. IN FACT,
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE STRUGGLING TO REACH 300 J/KG.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG WITH THE
CONVECTION FEEDING INTO 0-1 KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AS THE
NCFRB MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, AND 200-250
M2/S2 ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PA.
THIS HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT HAS HELPED SPC MAINTAIN A
CONSISTENT STANCE OF PAINTING BASICALLY OUR ENTIRE CWA WITH A
MRGL RISK OF SEVERE TSRA (WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY DISCRETE CELLS OR BOWS IN THE NCFRB
COULD TAP/FOCUS ENOUGH LLVL SHEAR TO PRODUCE A FEW OCCURRENCES
OF A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO, MAINLY OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY
DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING AND SPC IN COLLAB WITH MID
ATLANTIC WFOS - HAS INCLUDED A 2% TOR RISK FOR OUR FAR SE ZONES
(AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST INTO KLWX AND KPHI'S CWAS).
THE SETUP IS A COMMON TRANSITION SEASON LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS 50-60 MPH ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINES/FRONTAL BANDS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE FORWARD MOTION, WE FEEL THAT THE FLOODING RISK IS
PRETTY LOW OR ON THE NUISANCE SIDE (DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO A
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR). PRIMARY RISK WOULD BE IN URBAN OR
RESIDENTIAL AREAS PARTICULARLY WHERE LEAVES CLOG STORM DRAINS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 3-6MB FALL/RISE COUPLET INDICATES
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE LLVL
FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST ON MONDAY
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST "WINDY" PERIOD THIS FALL WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BLOW LEAVES AND UNSECURED OBJECTS (HALLOWEEN
DECORATIONS) AROUND.
WRAP-AROUND RAIN ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF
AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BREEZY
AND COOLER TO START NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ARE
FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND WILL AMPLIFY THE 24HR
COOL DOWN/MAXT CHANGE OF -10 TO -20 DEGREES VS. SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AND QUITE SHOWERY
(ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER NW PA AND THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES) UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT THE THE
FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE FOUND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. I GUESS IT'S THAT TIME OF
YEAR...
COLDEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST WED-THU WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW
LATE OCTOBER CLIMO. MINIMUM TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BOTTOM
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST RISK IN THE LSV WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. EXPECT A MODEST/SEASONABLE WARMUP
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
BEGINNING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION (>70%) DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND TRIED TO TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BASED ON SHORT
TERM HIGH RES MODELS. TSRA IS POSSIBLE BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT
AT THIS POINT OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WINDS WILL INCREASE APPRECIABLY AROUND
2,000 FT AGL BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. LEFT WS WORDING OUT OF
AIRFIELDS THAT HAVE GUSTY WINDS AT THE TIME AS WINDSHEAR IS
IMPLIED WITH GUSTS.
HEAVIER RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA WITH A STEADIER LIGHT RAIN AFTER
00-03Z. THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE W/ GUSTY WINDS. A LINE OF SHRA IS
EXPECTED.
TUE-THUR...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/BOWEN
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL/BOWEN
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/BOWEN
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TYBURSKI
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