683
FXUS61 KCTP 200204
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1004 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
* BREEZY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
* RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS
* FREQUENT SHOWERS CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH LATE
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/
RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND
THREAT ALONG EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT IS LARGELY OVER. LATEST
OBS SHOW 25-30KT GUSTS AT THV/MDT WITH PRESRR. GRADIENT/PRESSURE
INDUCED WIND GUSTS HAVE REALLY DROPPED OFF FARTHER TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND EXPECT THIS LULL TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE WINDS START TO INCREASE DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS READINGS/5-10F
ABOVE CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE AREA; HOWEVER LOCATIONS TO THE WEST
OF US-219 WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COLDER.
SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
WRAP-AROUND RAIN ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF
AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. BREEZY AND
COOLER TO START NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN SHOWERS EXITING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ARE FORECAST
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND WILL AMPLIFY THE 24HR COOL
DOWN/MAXT CHANGE OF -10 TO -20 DEGREES VS. SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH TEMPS TRENDING A
BIT MILDER ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED AND QUITE SHOWERY
(ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER NW PA AND THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES) UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. IT'S CONCEIVABLE THAT THE THE
FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE FOUND OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. I GUESS IT'S THAT TIME OF
YEAR...
COLDEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST WED-THU WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW
LATE OCTOBER CLIMO. MINIMUM TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BOTTOM
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST RISK IN THE LSV WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. EXPECT A MODEST/SEASONABLE WARMUP
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR TO IFR CIGS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS AS MOIST
UPSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MVFR TO VFR
CIGS EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE EAST. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS ON
MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30KT FROM 270-300 DEGREES. SHOWERS END
MONDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THUR...MVFR/IFR WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS NW 1/2. MVFR/VFR SE
1/2. SFC WIND GUSTS 20-25KT FROM 230-260 DEGREES.
FRI...TRENDING VFR WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/BOWEN
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page