402
FXUS61 KCTP 201717
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
117 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SHOWERS END THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY WINDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS
* A BRIEF 4 TO 6 DEGREE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
* FREQUENT SHOWERS CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH LATER
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE
OCTOBER
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR KDUJ WAS LIFTING GRADUALLY TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF COLD CONVEYOR
BELT/WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ACROSS NRN AND WRN PA, WHILE A NEARLY
NORTH/SOUTH DRY SLOT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING WAS NOTED OVER THE
SCENT MTNS AND MID/LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
HIGH RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NCENT MTNS OF PA DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE EXITING OUR FAR NE ZONES BY AROUND NOON.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT, BKN-OVC STRATO CU CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN
MTNS WHILE THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND SCENT MTNS SEE JUST SCTD,
STRATO CU BASED BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AGL.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 60S IN THE SUSQ
VALLEY.
VERTICAL MIXING TODAY, WITHIN THE AREA IF DEEPENING COLD
ADVECTION, WILL EXTEND UP TO AROUND 5 KFT AGL ON AVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MODERATE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 3-4 MB WILL
HELP TO MIX DOWN AND ACCENTUATE THE MEAN WEST-NORTHWEST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW CREATING FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, AND EVEN A
FEW TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 MPH DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO 10 MPH OR
LESS EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DRY OUT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH TEMPS
TRENDING A BIT MILDER (BY 4-6 DEG F) ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WE'LL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH.
DEEPENING WARN ADVECTION WILL PUSH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AFTER 20Z
TUESDAY AND REACH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22Z TUESDAY AND
00Z WED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
WE'LL SEE A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH.
DEEPENING WARN ADVECTION WILL PUSH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AFTER 20Z
TUESDAY AND REACH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22Z TUESDAY AND
00Z WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED
AND QUITE SHOWERY (ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER NW PA
AND THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES) UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. IT'S CONCEIVABLE
THAT THE THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE FOUND OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. I GUESS IT'S THAT
TIME OF YEAR...
COLDEST TEMPS ARE FORECAST WED-THU WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW
LATE OCTOBER CLIMO. MINIMUM TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BOTTOM
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST RISK IN THE LSV WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. EXPECT A MODEST/SEASONABLE WARMUP
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL PA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT.
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO HANG ON IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE ISOLATED RAIN CONTINUES TO ENCOURAGE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BFD. ALL SIGHTS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL
SIGHTS UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED AFTER 03Z. WINDS WILL CALM
OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN US TOMORROW WITH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TO CENTRAL PA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THUR...MVFR/IFR WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS NW 1/2. MVFR/VFR SE
1/2. SFC WIND GUSTS 20-25KT FROM 230-260 DEGREES.
FRI...TRENDING VFR WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/BOWEN
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BOWEN
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