779
FXUS61 KCTP 201904
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
304 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS TAPER TONIGHT AS THE SUN MAKES A RETURN
APPEARANCE FOR THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY.
* A MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS AND
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* FREQUENT SHOWERS CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH LATER
THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE
OCTOBER
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
KALB/ALBANY, NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTY
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PA. WINDS ARE GUSTING
20 TO 30 KTS UNDER PARTY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT, BKN- OVC STRATO CU CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN MTNS WHILE
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND SCENT MTNS SEE JUST SCTD, STRATO CU
BASED BETWEEN 4-5 KFT AGL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW 60S IN
THE SUSQ VALLEY. BRADFORD, WHICH HAS BEEN DEALING WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN IS STILL STUCK IN THE UPPER
40S.
LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION, WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND
CONTRIBUTE TO COLLAPSING CLOUDS AND DECREASING WINDS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO 10 MPH OR LESS EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT, FALLING INTO THE 30S ACROSS NEARLY THE
ENTIRE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WE'LL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS, HOWEVER,
DURING THE DAY AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
DEEPENING WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AFTER
20Z/4PM TUESDAY AND REACH THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 22Z/6PM
TUESDAY AND 00Z WED/8PM TUESDAY.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK THANKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HELPING PUSH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY WHILE STAYING IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE SOONER AND
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OWING TO A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH OF A RAPIDLY-DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES AND QUEBEC. THE INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS AND HIGHER CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURE A LITTLE HIGHER (MID 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S
SOUTHEAST).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE REMAINDER OF THIS MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED
AND QUITE SHOWERY (ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE OVER NW PA
AND THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES) UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. IT'S CONCEIVABLE
THAT THE THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON MAY BE FOUND OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. I GUESS IT'S THAT
TIME OF YEAR...
COLDEST DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST WED-THU WITH HIGHS BELOW
LATE OCTOBER CLIMO. MINIMUM TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO BOTTOM
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME FROST RISK IN THE LSV WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL, WHICH MEANS WE
WILL BE SPARED FROM THE STRONG WINDS AND RAINY WEATHER (AS WE'D
SEE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH), BUT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM AND
SUNNY (AS WE'D SEE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE).
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL PA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT.
STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO HANG ON IN THE NORTHWEST
WHERE ISOLATED RAIN CONTINUES TO ENCOURAGE MVFR CONDITIONS AT
BFD. ALL SIGHTS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40KTS POSSIBLE AT ALL
SIGHTS UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED AFTER 03Z. WINDS WILL CALM
OVERNIGHT, BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN US TOMORROW WITH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE TO CENTRAL PA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-THUR...MVFR/IFR WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS NW 1/2. MVFR/VFR SE
1/2. SFC WIND GUSTS 20-25KT FROM 230-260 DEGREES.
FRI...TRENDING VFR WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...BANGHOFF
AVIATION...BOWEN
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