297
FXUS61 KCTP 280532
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
132 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
* SOAKING RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TAPERS TO
SHOWERS FOR HALLOWEEN
* BREEZY/SHOWERY/CHILLY START TO NOVEMBER
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL PA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN TIER WHO REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 40S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
STREAM IN, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRIER LOW LEVELS.
THUS EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A WIDESPREAD, SOAKING
RAINFALL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA AS ITS PARENT
UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST,
PULLING A PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE ATLANTIC.
THE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT APPROACHES THE
REGION, WHICH SHOULD CENTER THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NBM QPF THROUGH THURSDAY RANGES FROM JUST OVER AN INCH OVER
NORTHWESTERN PA, TO AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS FOR AREAS EAST
OF I-99 AND SOUTH OF I-80. AN ADDITIONAL 1/2 INCH OR SO OF RAIN
LOOKS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THERE ARE STILL QUITE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT
SUGGEST PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL PA COULD SEE UPWARDS OF 2
INCHES OF RAIN. WPC HAS EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, BUT WITH THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THE
RAINFALL SHOULD LARGELY BE BENEFICIAL.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY
WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW. WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS,
EXPECT RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH. LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL FORM TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN PA, BUT ALL
TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 10
KNOTS. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...RAIN SPREADS SOUTH TO NORTH WITH RESTRICTIONS MOST
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRI-SAT...BREEZY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GUSEMAN/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN/BAUCO
AVIATION...BAUCO
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