606
FXUS61 KCTP 281909
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
309 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
*SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
*PERIODS OF RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
*BREEZY AND CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
NOVEMBER WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF CPA; THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA WHERE VISIBLE SAT TRENDS,
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HIRES MODEL DATA SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FCST LOW TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
THE LSV METROS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW END OF OCTOBER CLIMO.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE/EXPAND NORTHWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN PROJECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER BY THE EVENING
TIMEFRAME/00Z THU. WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING
PIVOTING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL DRIVE TERRAIN-ENHANCED, WAVES OF
SOAKING RAIN ACROSS CPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. QPF TOTALS STILL ARE IN THE 1-2" RANGE AND
EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL (SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING
MAY OCCUR AROUND LEAF-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS). WPC HAS REMOVED THE
MRGL ERO FOR D2. A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH P-GRADIENT WILL INITIALLY
SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHWARD AND OCCLUDES OVER PA/WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SFC
STABILITY WITH THE WARM SECTOR AND PRIMARY RISK OF A T-STORM
EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE MD LINE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS AND BECOMES FOCUSED DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MEAN FLOW SHIFTS AND BECOMES
QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE WNW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING
PRIMARY SFC LOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BREEZY/WINDY AND RATHER CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO SPILL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. BRISK WNW
FLOW, CAA AND EFFICIENT BL MIXING WILL SUPPORT MAX WIND GUSTS
>30 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TRICK OR TREAT CONDITIONS LOCALLY LOOK RATHER
UNPLEASANT WITH A WIND-CHILLED TEMPERATURE AROUND 40 DEGREES.
CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DRIVING
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. MARGINAL TEMPS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS/LOWERING CIGS GENERALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATS ARE PROBABLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG WITH WAVES OF RAIN, GUSTY WINDS
AND LLWS. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT FOCUSING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE IMPACTING MAINLY THE WESTERN AIRFIELDS.
SFC WIND GUSTS >25KT FROM 280-310 DEGREES ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...RAIN SPREADS SOUTH TO NORTH WITH RESTRICTIONS MOST
LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRI-SAT...BREEZY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
SUN...LOW CLOUDS COULD BE PERSISTENT PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
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