213
FXUS61 KCTP 290535
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
135 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
*SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
*PERIODS OF RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
*BREEZY AND CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF
NOVEMBER WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF CPA; THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA WHERE VISIBLE SAT TRENDS,
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HIRES MODEL DATA SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FCST LOW TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
THE LSV METROS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW END OF OCTOBER CLIMO.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE/EXPAND NORTHWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN PROJECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER BY THE EVENING
TIMEFRAME/00Z THU. WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING
PIVOTING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL DRIVE TERRAIN-ENHANCED, WAVES OF
SOAKING RAIN ACROSS CPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. QPF TOTALS STILL ARE IN THE 1-2" RANGE AND
EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL (SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING
MAY OCCUR AROUND LEAF-CLOGGED STORM DRAINS). WPC HAS REMOVED THE
MRGL ERO FOR D2. A TIGHT NORTH-SOUTH P-GRADIENT WILL INITIALLY
SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHWARD AND OCCLUDES OVER PA/WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SFC
STABILITY WITH THE WARM SECTOR AND PRIMARY RISK OF A T-STORM
EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE MD LINE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION. RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS AND BECOMES FOCUSED DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MEAN FLOW SHIFTS AND BECOMES
QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE WNW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING
PRIMARY SFC LOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BREEZY/WINDY AND RATHER CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO SPILL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. BRISK WNW
FLOW, CAA AND EFFICIENT BL MIXING WILL SUPPORT MAX WIND GUSTS
>30 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA. TRICK OR TREAT CONDITIONS LOCALLY LOOK RATHER
UNPLEASANT WITH A WIND-CHILLED TEMPERATURE AROUND 40 DEGREES.
CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DRIVING
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. MARGINAL TEMPS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FIRST DEVELOP AT JST AND
AOO BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH 06Z.
RAIN WILL ENTER PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF JST AND AOO UNTIL
~21Z. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING,
REACHING ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND VISIBILITY MAY DROP BELOW 3 MILES AS THE RAIN
BECOMES HEAVIER.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AS A
40 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. WIND SHEAR
WILL FIRST DEVELOP AT JST AND AOO, BEFORE SPREADING NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THU...RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRI-SAT...BREEZY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
SUN...LOW CLOUDS COULD BE PERSISTENT PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO
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