056
FXUS61 KCTP 291124
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
724 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
* PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON TAPERING TO RAIN
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* BREEZY AND CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER
WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES
* ANOTHER RAINY STORM POSSIBLE FOR ELECTION DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
CLOUDS HAVE COVERED JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CWA S OF I-80 AND
THEY ARE CREEPING NORTHWARD A LITTLE, TOO. THEY ARE STRUGGLING
TO GET INTO THE LAURELS, BUT THEY HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR
MUCH OF THE SHIFT THUS FAR. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
DRAMATICALLY FROM THE NBM (AND HREF AND NAMNEST) GUIDANCE. ALL
ARE USUALLY RELIABLE, BUT HAVE MISSED THE BOAT ON THIS CLOUD
COVER. THE LAYER DOESN'T LOOK PARTICULARLY THIN, WHICH I MIGHT
THEN GIVE THEM A PASS ON IT. BUT, THEIR 8H RH FIELDS ARE PRETTY
MOIST. SO, I HAVE USED THE STRAIGHT-UP RH FOR A START. STILL
SOME LARGER BUT VERY TRANSIENT BREAKS HERE AND THERE, BUT PRETTY
CLOUDY ON THE WHOLE. THAT CHANGE HAS ALSO DRIVEN A MINOR TWEAK
UPWARD FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS AND MINS FOR THIS MORNING IN THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY AREAS.
AFTER SUNRISE, THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LAYERS INCREASED
EVEN MORE, AND CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. THE FIRST HINTS OF
RAINFALL ARE ALREADY ON THE RADAR WITH TINY PATCHES/SHOWERS
TRYING TO MAKE DOTS ON WINDSHIELDS IN THE SC MTNS AND LAURELS.
BUT, THAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE SITUATION THROUGH NOON OR LATER.
THE BROAD SCALE LIFT RAMPS UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
REAL, BUT STILL LIGHT RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE LAURELS IN THE
AFTN AND CONTINUE N FOR THE EVENING. THE AXIS OF A GOOD PLUME
OF MOISTURE WAITS UNTIL AFTER 00Z TO SLIDE EAST OF I-99 AND
NORTH OF I-80.
TEMPS FROM NBM AREN'T TOO BAD FOR THE AFTN, BUT SHOULD BE
STARTING OUT MILDER IN THE SE THIRD OR MORE WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
THICKER. THEN THEY WILL PROBABLY RISE A LITTLE SLOWER AND COULD
END UP BUSTING BY NOT GET WARM ENOUGH BY A COUPLE DEGREES IN THE
S. THE WIND WILL STAY FROM THE E/NE ALL DAY WHICH IS NOT USUALLY
WHERE WARMER AIR COMES FROM IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE RAIN WILL STREAM NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND GET
INTO THE NE MTNS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL
COME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND LATE THURSDAY AFTN. A DRY SLOT SHOULD
WORK IN FROM THE S IN THE AFTN. THE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND TO
THE EAST OF THE DRY SLOT COULD MAKE SOME THUNDER. THUS, THE QPF
OF 1.5"-2" CONTINUES TO LOOK SOLID. BUT, THE 18-24 HR TIME FRAME
OVER WHICH IT FALLS SHOULD KEEP FLOODING WORRIES LOW. SOME
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS, BUT LARGE STREAM AND
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A PROBLEM. THE SFC LOW
PASSES LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING, WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE
W WIND TO KICK IN. SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE EXPECTED THURS
NIGHT AND FRI, MAINLY IN THE LAURELS AND TO SOME EXTENT OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST TIME AS
WE MIX UP TO ABOUT 3-5KFT (DEEPER IN THE E) DESPITE CAA. NEITHER
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NOR GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVY
THRESHOLDS. THE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL MAKE NUMEROUS SHRA
FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BREEZY/WINDY AND RATHER CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPILL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE
GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT, BUT NOT GO AWAY. TRICK
OR TREAT CONDITIONS LOCALLY LOOK RATHER UNPLEASANT WITH A WIND-
CHILLED TEMPERATURE AROUND 40 DEGREES.
CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DRIVING
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. MARGINAL TEMPS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKE THE GFS FOR THE
ELECTION DAY TIME FRAME. THAT MIGHT MEAN A MATURE STORM, MUCH
LIKE THE PRESENT ONE, WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AGAIN. THE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE CHILLIER, ESP BEHIND THE
(POTENTIAL) SYSTEM. JURY STILL OUT ON THIS ONE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PATCHY VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
THIS MORNING. IT HAS STAYED AWAY FROM BFD SO FAR, BUT THERE IS
AROUND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
REDUCED VSBY BEFORE THE FOG STARTS TO DISSIPATE. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FIRST
DEVELOP AT JST AND AOO BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
06Z.
RAIN WILL ENTER PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF JST AND AOO UNTIL
~21Z. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING,
REACHING ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO IFR AS THE RAIN BECOMES
HEAVIER. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR VSBY WILL BE AT IPT, MDT, AND
LNS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN PA
TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONS OF THUNDER IN THE
TAF.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AS A
40 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. WIND SHEAR
WILL FIRST DEVELOP AT JST AND AOO, BEFORE SPREADING NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TAF SITES, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING IT AT BFD AND IPT FOR
NOW AS MODELS STILL DIFFER QUITE A BIT AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE LLJ GETS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRI-SAT...BREEZY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
SUN...LOW CLOUDS COULD BE PERSISTENT PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO
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