756
FXUS61 KCTP 291553
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1153 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
* PERIODS OF RAIN LATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* WINDY AND CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING
OVER THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER WITH OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS MOST LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES
* ANOTHER RAINY STORM POSSIBLE FOR ELECTION DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING/THICKENING-UP FROM THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY
VEERS AND INCREASES THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN THE LAYER.
BROAD SCALE UVVEL INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND NNE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
EVENING. THE AXIS OF A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE WAITS UNTIL AFTER
00Z TO SLIDE EAST OF I-99 AND NORTH OF I-80.
OBSERVED TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE AND
PREVIOUS FCST, SO EXPECT ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON'S HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS.
SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE E/NE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
A LARGE SHIELD OF MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN WILL STEADILY ADVANCE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND REACH THE NE MTNS
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL COME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND LATE
THURSDAY AFTN. A DRY SLOT SHOULD WORK IN FROM THE S IN THE AFTN.
THE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRY SLOT COULD
MAKE SOME THUNDER. THUS, THE QPF OF 1.5"-2" CONTINUES TO LOOK
SOLID. BUT, THE 18-24 HR TIME FRAME OVER WHICH IT FALLS SHOULD
KEEP FLOODING WORRIES LOW. SOME CLOGGED STORM DRAINS WILL CAUSE
PROBLEMS, BUT LARGE STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TO BE A PROBLEM. THE SFC LOW PASSES LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING, WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE W WIND TO KICK IN. SOME GUSTS
INTO THE 30S ARE EXPECTED THURS NIGHT AND FRI, MAINLY IN THE
LAURELS AND TO SOME EXTENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST TIME AS WE MIX UP TO ABOUT 3-5KFT
(DEEPER IN THE E) DESPITE CAA. NEITHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS NOR
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVY THRESHOLDS. THE FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES WILL MAKE NUMEROUS SHRA FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BREEZY/WINDY AND RATHER CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPILL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE
GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT, BUT NOT GO AWAY. TRICK
OR TREAT CONDITIONS LOCALLY LOOK RATHER UNPLEASANT WITH A WIND-
CHILLED TEMPERATURE AROUND 40 DEGREES.
CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DRIVING
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENY FRONT. MARGINAL TEMPS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKE THE GFS FOR THE
ELECTION DAY TIME FRAME. THAT MIGHT MEAN A MATURE STORM, MUCH
LIKE THE PRESENT ONE, WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AGAIN. THE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE CHILLIER, ESP BEHIND THE
(POTENTIAL) SYSTEM. JURY STILL OUT ON THIS ONE.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL FIRST DEVELOP AT JST AND AOO BEFORE EXPANDING
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH 06Z.
RAIN WILL ENTER PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF JST AND AOO UNTIL
~21Z. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING,
REACHING ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT AND VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO IFR AS THE RAIN BECOMES
HEAVIER. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR VSBY WILL BE AT IPT, MDT, AND
LNS. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN PA
TOWARDS SUNRISE AS WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTIONS OF THUNDER IN THE
TAF.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AS A
40 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. WIND SHEAR
WILL FIRST DEVELOP AT JST AND AOO, BEFORE SPREADING NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TAF SITES, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING IT AT BFD AND IPT FOR
NOW AS MODELS STILL DIFFER QUITE A BIT AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE LLJ GETS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRI-SAT...BREEZY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
SUN...LOW CLOUDS COULD BE PERSISTENT PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
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