471
FXUS61 KCTP 291956
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
356 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
* PERIODS OF STEADY, MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE TODAY AND OVER THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* TURNING WINDY AND CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN WITH WINDS SLOWLY
DECREASING OVER THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER WITH OROGRAPHIC
AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MOST LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES
* ANOTHER RAINY STORM POSSIBLE FOR ELECTION DAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AS DEEP LAYER MID-LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS AND INCREASES THETA-E ADVECTION WITHIN THE
LAYER.
BROAD SCALE UVVEL INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD/SPREAD OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS AROUND DUSK AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND NNE ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE
WAITS UNTIL AFTER 00Z TO SLIDE EAST OF I-99 AND NORTH OF I-80.
THE ONSET OF THE RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NE MTNS AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
19Z SFC TEMPS (MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S) ARE WITHIN A DEG F
OF FORECAST HIGHS AT ALL LOCATIONS. COOLEST AIR RESIDED ACROSS
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE E/NE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INCREASE AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY LLJ SPREADS
NORTH INTO THE STATE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL COME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND LATE
THURSDAY AFTN WITH THE 6 AM TO 1 PM PERIOD POTENTIALLY HOSTING
THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND MIDDLE/LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY AS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINKED TO THE
WESTERN PART OF HURRICANE MELLISA (AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAHAMAS) SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
A DRY SLOT SHOULD WORK IN FROM THE S IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS. THE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRY SLOT
COULD MAKE SOME THUNDER. THUS, THE QPF OF 1.5"-2" CONTINUES TO
LOOK SOLID, THOUGH 24 HOUR PMM VALUES VIA THE HREF LIGHT UP A
STRIPE OR TWO OF 3+ INCH AMOUNTS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE MID
AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER.
LUCKILY, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORM AND THE 12-18 HR
TIME FRAME OVER WHICH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLS SHOULD KEEP
FLOODING WORRIES SOMEWHAT LOW. SOME CLOGGED STORM DRAINS WILL
CAUSE PROBLEMS, BUT LARGE STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE A PROBLEM. THE SFC LOW PASSES LATE IN THE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING, WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE W WIND TO KICK IN. SOME
GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE EXPECTED THURS NIGHT AND FRI, MAINLY IN
THE LAURELS AND TO SOME EXTENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST TIME AS WE MIX UP TO ABOUT 3-5KFT
(DEEPER IN THE E) DESPITE CAA. NEITHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS NOR
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVY THRESHOLDS. THE FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES WILL MAKE NUMEROUS SHRA FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BREEZY/WINDY AND RATHER CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPILL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE
GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT, BUT NOT GO AWAY. TRICK
OR TREAT CONDITIONS LOCALLY LOOK RATHER UNPLEASANT WITH A WIND-
CHILLED TEMPERATURE AROUND 40 DEGREES.
COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS BY 5-8
KTS WHICH PLACES PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE, TICKLING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
CHILLY CONDITIONS (GENERALLY A FEW DEG F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
PLACES) CONTINUE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DRIVING INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. MARGINAL TEMPS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKE THE GFS FOR THE
ELECTION DAY TIME FRAME. THAT MIGHT MEAN A MATURE STORM, MUCH
LIKE THE PRESENT ONE, WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AGAIN. THE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE CHILLIER, ESP BEHIND THE
(POTENTIAL) SYSTEM. JURY STILL OUT ON THIS ONE.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MUCH OF AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FIRST
DEVELOP AT JST AND AOO BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
06Z.
A FEW AREAS OF RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS WESTERN PA THROUGH
DUSK, STAYING MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE RT 219 CORRIDOR.
THE RAIN WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING, REACHING ALL
TAF SITES BY 06Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT AND
VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO IFR AS THE RAIN BECOMES HEAVIER. THE BEST
CHANCE OF IFR VSBY WILL BE AT IPT, MDT, AND LNS. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN PA TOWARDS SUNRISE AS
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY MENTIONS OF THUNDER IN THE TAF.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AS A
40 TO 50 KNOT E TO SE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. WIND
SHEAR WILL FIRST DEVELOP AT JST AND AOO, BEFORE SPREADING NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA WITH LOW CEILINGS AND
PERIODS OF VSBYS AOB 2SM
OUTLOOK...
THU...RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
FRI-SAT...WINDY FRIDAY WITH WNW GUSTS OF 30 TO 35+ KTS.
STAYING BREEZY SATURDAY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE.
SUN...LOW CLOUDS COULD BE PERSISTENT PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
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