217
FXUS61 KCTP 300337
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1137 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
* PERIODS OF STEADY, MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE TODAY AND OVER THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* TURNING WINDY AND CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN WITH WINDS SLOWLY
DECREASING OVER THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER WITH OROGRAPHIC
AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MOST LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES
* ANOTHER RAINY STORM POSSIBLE FOR ELECTION DAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WITH MOST RECENT (03Z/11PM EDT) RADAR
OUTLINING HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. FORTUNATELY, WHILE RELATIVELY HEAVY, THREE-HOUR
PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENTS AT JST/AOO OUTLINE ~0.10" OF
RAINFALL. CURRENT FORECAST OUTLINES STRATIFORM RAIN BECOMING THE
NAME OF THE GAME AREA WIDE SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT NEAR-TERM PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A 50-60KT
850MB LLJ ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES IN/AROUND THE 08Z/3AM EDT
TIMEFRAME ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND TRACKING UP THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR-
TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST OUTLINES GUSTS ~25-30KTS BUT THE
CEILING FOR WIND GUSTS IN THIS TIMEFRAME WILL PUSH CLOSER TO THE
~30-35KT RANGE ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY IN THIS
OCCURRING. THUS, NO WIND ADVISORY (GUSTS OF 40KT NEEDED FOR THE
ADVISORY) EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PROBABILITY OUTCOME.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NEAR-TERM
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTN WITH THE 6AM-1PM PERIOD POTENTIALLY
HOSTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND MIDDLE/LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY AS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINKED TO THE
WESTERN PART OF HURRICANE MELLISA (AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAHAMAS) SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
A DRY SLOT SHOULD WORK IN FROM THE S IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS. THE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRY SLOT
COULD MAKE SOME THUNDER. THUS, THE QPF OF 1.5"-2" CONTINUES TO
LOOK SOLID, THOUGH 24 HOUR PMM VALUES VIA THE HREF LIGHT UP A
STRIPE OR TWO OF 3+ INCH AMOUNTS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE MID
AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER.
LUCKILY, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORM AND THE 12-18 HR
TIME FRAME OVER WHICH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLS SHOULD KEEP
FLOODING WORRIES SOMEWHAT LOW. SOME CLOGGED STORM DRAINS WILL
CAUSE PROBLEMS, BUT LARGE STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE A PROBLEM. THE SFC LOW PASSES LATE IN THE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING, WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE W WIND TO KICK IN. SOME
GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE EXPECTED THURS NIGHT AND FRI, MAINLY IN
THE LAURELS AND TO SOME EXTENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST TIME AS WE MIX UP TO ABOUT 3-5KFT
(DEEPER IN THE E) DESPITE CAA. NEITHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS NOR
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVY THRESHOLDS. THE FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES WILL MAKE NUMEROUS SHRA FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BREEZY/WINDY AND RATHER CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPILL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE
GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT, BUT NOT GO AWAY. TRICK
OR TREAT CONDITIONS LOCALLY LOOK RATHER UNPLEASANT WITH A WIND-
CHILLED TEMPERATURE AROUND 40 DEGREES.
COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS BY 5-8
KTS WHICH PLACES PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE, TICKLING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
CHILLY CONDITIONS (GENERALLY A FEW DEG F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
PLACES) CONTINUE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DRIVING INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. MARGINAL TEMPS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKE THE GFS FOR THE
ELECTION DAY TIME FRAME. THAT MIGHT MEAN A MATURE STORM, MUCH
LIKE THE PRESENT ONE, WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AGAIN. THE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE CHILLIER, ESP BEHIND THE
(POTENTIAL) SYSTEM. JURY STILL OUT ON THIS ONE.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
00Z UPDATE... DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
CENTRAL PA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SOME LATE
DAY IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE COMMONWEALTH, AS A DRY SLOT ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD.
A STEADY INFUSION OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING
CEILINGS AND ULTIMATELY THE ONSET OF STEADY RAINFALL FROM LATER
THIS EVENING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AREA-WIDE. THE ONSET OF
IFR RESTRICTIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM 03-06Z, WITH STEADY-
STATE RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS THEN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO (90+%). BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN ARE PROBABLE.
MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
FROM SOUTH-NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING AND LOCATIONS ON THIS ARE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AIRFIELDS (KAOO/KMDT/KLNS) AFTER 20-22Z. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (40-60%) ON THIS SCENARIO.
ALTHOUGH NOT STRICTLY MENTIONED IN THE TERMINALS, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KLNS AND KMDT
FROM ROUGHLY 16-21Z THURSDAY. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
A STRENGTHENING E-SE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER (45-55 KT AT 2000-4000 FEET AGL) WILL LEAD TO
PROBABLE LLWS CONDITIONS FOR MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF PA FROM
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...WINDY FRIDAY WITH WNW GUSTS OF 30 TO 35+ KTS. STAYING
BREEZY SATURDAY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
SUN...LOW CLOUDS COULD BE PERSISTENT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/NPB
LONG TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUREWICZ/LAMBERT
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