897
FXUS61 KCTP 300616
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
216 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
* PERIODS OF STEADY, MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS LATE TODAY AND OVER THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL PA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
* TURNING WINDY AND CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN WITH WINDS SLOWLY
DECREASING OVER THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER WITH OROGRAPHIC
AND LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS MOST LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN
ALLEGHENIES
* ANOTHER RAINY STORM POSSIBLE FOR ELECTION DAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS ALREADY STARTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WITH MOST RECENT (03Z/11PM EDT) RADAR
OUTLINING HEAVIER RAIN ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. FORTUNATELY, WHILE RELATIVELY HEAVY, THREE-HOUR
PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENTS AT JST/AOO OUTLINE ~0.10" OF
RAINFALL. CURRENT FORECAST OUTLINES STRATIFORM RAIN BECOMING THE
NAME OF THE GAME AREA WIDE SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT NEAR-TERM PERIOD.
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A 50-60KT
850MB LLJ ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES IN/AROUND THE 08Z/3AM EDT
TIMEFRAME ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND TRACKING UP THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE NEAR-
TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST OUTLINES GUSTS ~25-30KTS BUT THE
CEILING FOR WIND GUSTS IN THIS TIMEFRAME WILL PUSH CLOSER TO THE
~30-35KT RANGE ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY IN THIS
OCCURRING. THUS, NO WIND ADVISORY (GUSTS OF 40KT NEEDED FOR THE
ADVISORY) EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PROBABILITY OUTCOME.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NEAR-TERM
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTN WITH THE 6AM-1PM PERIOD POTENTIALLY
HOSTING THE HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE SCENT MTNS AND MIDDLE/LOWER
SUSQ VALLEY AS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINKED TO THE
WESTERN PART OF HURRICANE MELLISA (AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAHAMAS) SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
A DRY SLOT SHOULD WORK IN FROM THE S IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS. THE INSTABILITY ALOFT AND TO THE EAST OF THE DRY SLOT
COULD MAKE SOME THUNDER. THUS, THE QPF OF 1.5"-2" CONTINUES TO
LOOK SOLID, THOUGH 24 HOUR PMM VALUES VIA THE HREF LIGHT UP A
STRIPE OR TWO OF 3+ INCH AMOUNTS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE MID
AND LOWER SUSQ RIVER.
LUCKILY, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORM AND THE 12-18 HR
TIME FRAME OVER WHICH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLS SHOULD KEEP
FLOODING WORRIES SOMEWHAT LOW. SOME CLOGGED STORM DRAINS WILL
CAUSE PROBLEMS, BUT LARGE STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE A PROBLEM. THE SFC LOW PASSES LATE IN THE DAY
AND EARLY EVENING, WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE W WIND TO KICK IN. SOME
GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE EXPECTED THURS NIGHT AND FRI, MAINLY IN
THE LAURELS AND TO SOME EXTENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST TIME AS WE MIX UP TO ABOUT 3-5KFT
(DEEPER IN THE E) DESPITE CAA. NEITHER SUSTAINED SPEEDS NOR
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVY THRESHOLDS. THE FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES WILL MAKE NUMEROUS SHRA FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BREEZY/WINDY AND RATHER CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPILL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE
GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT, BUT NOT GO AWAY. TRICK
OR TREAT CONDITIONS LOCALLY LOOK RATHER UNPLEASANT WITH A WIND-
CHILLED TEMPERATURE AROUND 40 DEGREES.
COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS BY 5-8
KTS WHICH PLACES PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE, TICKLING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
CHILLY CONDITIONS (GENERALLY A FEW DEG F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
PLACES) CONTINUE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DRIVING INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. MARGINAL TEMPS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKE THE GFS FOR THE
ELECTION DAY TIME FRAME. THAT MIGHT MEAN A MATURE STORM, MUCH
LIKE THE PRESENT ONE, WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AGAIN. THE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE CHILLIER, ESP BEHIND THE
(POTENTIAL) SYSTEM. JURY STILL OUT ON THIS ONE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUD
BASES. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY 10Z. VSBY
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS RAIN INTENSITY
INCREASES. LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE REGION. WIND SHEAR
IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES, THOUGH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE LLJ WILL MOVE OVER MDT, LNS, AND IPT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR MDT AND LNS, AS MODEST
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR OR VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT BFD AND JST WHERE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY RETURN TO UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...WINDY FRIDAY WITH WNW GUSTS OF 30 TO 35+ KTS. STAYING
BREEZY SATURDAY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
SUN...LOW CLOUDS COULD BE PERSISTENT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/NPB
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...BAUCO
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