708
FXUS61 KCTP 300814
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
414 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
* MATURE STORM MOVES THROUGH TODAY PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES
* SOME THREAT FOR GUSTY WIND AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO TODAY
* WIND GUSTS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MAY EXCEED 40 MPH
* LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND THEN MAINLY
DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MATURE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE IS SENDING WAVES OF MODERATE RAIN
QUICKLY NORTHWARD ACOSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. OCCLUSION SHOULD
BE MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DYNAMICS WITH THE STORM
ARE VERY STRONG, AND A LLJET OF 60+KT WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THANKFULLY, THE STORM IS MOVING POLEWARD STEADILY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A PERIOD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WHEN THE VERY
FAST WIND OF THE JET WILL BE RIGHT AT THE TOPS OF THE RIDGES OF
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. SOME GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 40S ARE
EXPECTED, BUT THE GENERAL STABILITY DURING THE MORNING SHOULD
KEEP THEM FROM GETTING ANY HIGHER. HAVE CHOSEN TO NOT ISSUE A
WIND ADVY FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW STABLE IT
WILL BE. THE STABILITY COMES INTO PLAY IN ANOTHER WAY, TOO.
MODEL SOUNDINGS YIELD VERY HIGH SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KFT. THERE
COULD BE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES FORM AS THE EASTERN EDGE/SIDE OF
THE DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ. WITH LOW LCLS (VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT), THERE IS A CHC FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO. TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S IN THE SE AS THE SUN SHOULD
BREAK THROUGH AT TIMES, ESP LATE IN THE DAY IN THE DRY SLOT.
THAT WOULD HELP CAPE CLIMB CLOSER TO 1000J. THE SPC MRGL RISK
IS PAINTED INTO OUR SERN 6-8 COUNTIES FOR THIS VERY REASON. IF
WE CAN GET UPRIGHT CONVECTION (EVEN SHALLOW), THERE IS A RISK
FOR SVR GUSTS AND EVEN TORNADOES. AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES,
THE FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE OF ALL THE SVR PARAMS WILL BE
WANING/BREAKING UP.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AS THE SFC LOW(S) MOVE TO THE NORTH/EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BE TURNING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WELL-ALIGNED WNW FLOW WILL MAKE IT EASY
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS JUST A FEW KFT UP TO MIX DOWN. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY FRI. HIGHER GUSTS WILL GET INTO THE 40S IN THE SW,
ESP ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE LAURELS. THE RISK FOR GUSTS
NEARING 50 MPH MAY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FOR LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY THERE. HOWEVER, COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES HAS YIELDED A CONSENSUS TO WAIT UNTIL THE DAYSHIFT TO
MAKE A YES/NO CALL ON THE ADVY. THE CASE FOR AN ADVY IS JUST AS
STRONG AS THE CASE AGAINST POSTING ONE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
THE CROSS-LAKE FLOW WILL GENERATE PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TEMPS GET MARGINAL FOR
SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE LAURELS
RIGHT AROUND DAWN FRI. BUT, THE GROUND IS PLENTY WARM AND NO
ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. MOST WON'T EVEN SEE ANY FLAKES. TEMPS FRI
WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S IN THE N AND SW, BUT THE
DOWNSLOPE HELP OVER THE SE WILL GET THEM TO THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BREEZY/WINDY AND RATHER CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPILL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE
GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT, BUT NOT GO AWAY. TRICK
OR TREAT CONDITIONS LOCALLY LOOK RATHER UNPLEASANT WITH A WIND-
CHILLED TEMPERATURE AROUND 40 DEGREES.
COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS BY 5-8
KTS WHICH PLACES PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE, TICKLING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
CHILLY CONDITIONS (GENERALLY A FEW DEG F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
PLACES) CONTINUE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DRIVING INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. MARGINAL TEMPS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKE THE GFS FOR THE
ELECTION DAY TIME FRAME. THAT MIGHT MEAN A MATURE STORM, MUCH
LIKE THE PRESENT ONE, WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AGAIN. THE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE CHILLIER, ESP BEHIND THE
(POTENTIAL) SYSTEM. JURY STILL OUT ON THIS ONE.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUD
BASES. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY 10Z. VSBY
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS RAIN INTENSITY
INCREASES. LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE REGION. WIND SHEAR
IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES, THOUGH THE STRONGEST PORTION OF
THE LLJ WILL MOVE OVER MDT, LNS, AND IPT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR MDT AND LNS, AS MODEST
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR OR VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT BFD AND JST WHERE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. MVFR CEILINGS
LIKELY RETURN TO UNV AND AOO OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...WINDY FRIDAY WITH WNW GUSTS OF 30 TO 35+ KTS. STAYING
BREEZY SATURDAY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
SUN...LOW CLOUDS COULD BE PERSISTENT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...BAUCO
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