525
FXUS61 KCTP 301544
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1144 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
* MATURE STORM MOVES THROUGH TODAY PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES
* SOME THREAT FOR GUSTY WIND AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO TODAY
* WIND GUSTS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MAY EXCEED 40 MPH
* LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND THEN MAINLY
DRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/
MATURE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH ITS ELONGATED SURFACE LOW
CENTER STRETCHED FROM NEAR KDCA WEST TO KCKB AT 15Z WILL
GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS PA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG
SERLY LLJ WILL BE OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE SUSQ VALLEY WHERE
AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 1.00 INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL.
THE FEW HOUR GLANCING BLOW OF THE NEAR 60F DEWPOINTS IN THE
NARROW WARM SECTOR, IMPACTING SOUTHERN YORK AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES (BETWEEN 16-18Z) WILL SUPPORT SFC-BASED CAPE OF
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG LEADING TO SOME LOW-TOPPED TSRA WITH 0-1KM
AGL SRH IN THE 400-500 M2/S2 RANGE. BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER
50 MPH FROM THE SOUTH AND EVEN A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE
(CONSIDERING THE MOIST ENVIR AND LOW LCLS) TO THE EAST OF THE
I-83 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS COULD GET INTO THE 60S IN THE SE AS THE SUN SHOULD BREAK
THROUGH AT TIMES, ESP LATE IN THE DAY IN THE DRY SLOT. MAX TS
ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO U50S RESPECTIVELY FROM
THE NORTHERN MTNS OF THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION WITH
PERIODS OF DRIZZLE FALLING FROM THE STRATUS DECK BENEATH THE MID
AND UPPER DRY SLOT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING NORTH ACROSS THE SW HALF
OF THE CWA.
THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR TWO VORT LOBES
SPINNING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NNE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AS THE SFC LOW(S) MOVE TO THE NORTH/EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BE TURNING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WELL-ALIGNED WNW FLOW WILL MAKE IT EASY
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS JUST A FEW KFT UP TO MIX DOWN. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY FRI. HIGHER GUSTS WILL GET INTO THE 40S IN THE SW,
ESP ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE LAURELS. THE RISK FOR GUSTS
NEARING 50 MPH MAY NECESSITATE AN ADVISORY FOR LATER TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY THERE. HOWEVER, COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES HAS YIELDED A CONSENSUS TO WAIT UNTIL THE DAYSHIFT TO
MAKE A YES/NO CALL ON THE ADVY. THE CASE FOR AN ADVY IS JUST AS
STRONG AS THE CASE AGAINST POSTING ONE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
THE CROSS-LAKE FLOW WILL GENERATE PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE TEMPS GET MARGINAL FOR
SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE LAURELS
RIGHT AROUND DAWN FRI. BUT, THE GROUND IS PLENTY WARM AND NO
ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. MOST WON'T EVEN SEE ANY FLAKES. TEMPS FRI
WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S IN THE N AND SW, BUT THE
DOWNSLOPE HELP OVER THE SE WILL GET THEM TO THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BREEZY/WINDY AND RATHER CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPILL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE
GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT, BUT NOT GO AWAY. TRICK
OR TREAT CONDITIONS LOCALLY LOOK RATHER UNPLEASANT WITH A WIND-
CHILLED TEMPERATURE AROUND 40 DEGREES.
COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING WFOS TO INCREASE WIND GUSTS BY 5-8
KTS WHICH PLACES PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE, TICKLING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
CHILLY CONDITIONS (GENERALLY A FEW DEG F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
PLACES) CONTINUE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DRIVING INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. MARGINAL TEMPS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKE THE GFS FOR THE
ELECTION DAY TIME FRAME. THAT MIGHT MEAN A MATURE STORM, MUCH
LIKE THE PRESENT ONE, WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AGAIN. THE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE CHILLIER, ESP BEHIND THE
(POTENTIAL) SYSTEM. JURY STILL OUT ON THIS ONE.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NE THIRD OF PA WITH CEILINGS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN IFR AND
LOW END MVFR. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DROP VSBY TO BELOW 3
MILES AT TIMES IN THIS AREA. LLWS REMAINS A CONCERN THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET
TRAVERSES THE REGION. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS, MAINLY AT MDT, LNS, AND IPT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY NEAR MDT AND LNS, AS MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 35
KNOTS.
CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR OR VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT FOR BFD WHERE IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING
FOR THE CLOUD COVER TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN. MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
ARE PROBABLE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT MDT AND LNS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...WINDY FRIDAY WITH WNW GUSTS OF 30 TO 35+ KTS. STAYING
BREEZY SATURDAY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
SUN...LOW CLOUDS COULD BE PERSISTENT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...LAMBERT/BAUCO
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