812
FXUS61 KCTP 310007
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
807 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
* MATURE STORM OVER PA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
NEW YORK STATE TONIGHT, ENDING THE RAIN FOR MOST PLACES.
* LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE-ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF PA THROUGH FRIDAY
* WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY WILL PEAK AROUND 45 MPH.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
STRENGTHENING, APPROX 980 MB EAST-WEST ELONGATED SFC LOW
CENTER (STRETCHED FROM NEAR KIDI TO KMUI AT 19Z) WILL CONTINUE
TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT MOVES NE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS
EVENING. PRECEDING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT SERLY LLJ
ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST WILL END AS A WELL-
DEFINED DRY SLOT SPREADS OVER THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND
VALLEY REGION AND SE PIEDMONT.
LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST TO THE MID 60S OVER
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR TWO VORT LOBES
SPINNING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NNE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
AS THE SFC LOW(S) MOVE TO THE NORTH/EAST AND OUT OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BE TURNING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WELL-ALIGNED WNW FLOW WILL MAKE IT EASY
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS JUST A FEW KFT UP TO MIX DOWN. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS INTO THE 30S ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE DAY FRI. HIGHER GUSTS WILL GET INTO THE 40S IN THE SW,
ESP ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE LAURELS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S OVER MCKEAN,
POTTER AND SOMERSET COUNTIES TO THE LOW AND MID 40S IN THE
CENTRAL AND SE PART OF THE STATE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
LATEST FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL MIXING SUPPORTS
WIND GUSTS OCCASIONALLY PEAKING AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40
KTS (46 MPH) FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.
THE CROSS-LAKE FLOW WILL GENERATE PLENTY OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE TEMPS GET MARGINAL FOR SOME
SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE LAURELS
RIGHT AROUND DAWN FRI. BUT, THE GROUND IS PLENTY WARM AND NO
ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. MOST WON'T EVEN SEE ANY FLAKES. TEMPS FRI
WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S IN THE N AND SW, BUT THE
DOWNSLOPE HELP OVER THE SE WILL GET THEM TO THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
BREEZY/WINDY AND RATHER CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO SPILL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. THE
GUSTS WILL START TO DIMINISH FRI NIGHT, BUT NOT GO AWAY. TRICK
OR TREAT CONDITIONS LOCALLY LOOK RATHER UNPLEASANT WITH A WIND-
CHILLED TEMPERATURE AROUND 40 DEGREES.
CHILLY CONDITIONS (GENERALLY A FEW DEG F BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
PLACES) CONTINUE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR DRIVING INCREASED
SHOWER ACTIVITY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT. MARGINAL TEMPS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKE THE GFS FOR THE
ELECTION DAY TIME FRAME. THAT MIGHT MEAN A MATURE STORM, MUCH
LIKE THE PRESENT ONE, WILL AFFECT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
AGAIN. THE TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE CHILLIER, ESP BEHIND THE
(POTENTIAL) SYSTEM. JURY STILL OUT ON THIS ONE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RADAR RETURNS PAINTING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. IFR AND MVFR UNDER THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BACKSIDE OF PRECIPITATION
UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL AREAS,
BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THERE.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION TOMORROW, THERE IS
AROUND A 20% CHANCE THAT -SHRA MAY BRING A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
EXPECT VFR IN ALL LOCATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY AROUND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. GUSTS TO 30KT FROM THE WEST WILL BE COMMON
WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40KTS AT TIMES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...WINDY FRIDAY WITH WNW GUSTS OF 30 TO 40+ KTS. STAYING
BREEZY SATURDAY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.
SUN...LOW CLOUDS COULD BE PERSISTENT, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
CLIMATE
RECORD RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED AT THREE CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON OCTOBER 30, 2025 AS OF 5PM:
- A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.49" WAS SET AT WILLIAMSPORT, BREAKING
THE OLD RECORD OF 2.00" SET IN 1935. FOR REFERENCE, A
CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT WILLIAMSPORT SINCE
1895.
- A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.87" WAS SET AT HARRISBURG, BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 1.39" SET IN 1917. FOR REFERENCE, A CONTINUOUS
WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
- A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.91" WAS SET AT BRADFORD, BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 0.62" SET IN 2016.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/DANGELO
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/NPB
AVIATION...TYBURSKI
CLIMATE...NPB
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