589
FXUS61 KCTP 310844
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
* WINDY/CHILLY HALLOWEEN WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ALLEGHENIES
* SEASONABLE AND MAINLY DRY START TO NOVEMBER
* BREEZY WITH A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY-THURSDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WINDY AND CHILLY FOR HALLOWEEN. NWRLY (CROSS-LAKE) FLOW WILL
RESULT IN PLENTY OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
NW ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE MOST
LIKELY IN THE LSV. FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAX GUSTS
IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 8AM UNTIL MIDNIGHT/12AM SATURDAY. MAX APPARENT TEMPS IN THE
35-50F RANGE ARE A GOOD PROXY FOR WHAT IT WILL FEEL LIKE
OUTSIDE TODAY WITH ACTUAL HIGHS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
HALLOWEEN CLIMO (20-30 DEGREES COLDER THAN LAST YEAR!). TRICK
OR TREAT CONDITIONS WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY WITH A WIND CHILLED
TEMP AROUND 40 DEGREES LOCALLY. WIND GUSTS WILL TREND LOWER
TONIGHT, BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO DECREASE WITH MAX POPS DOWNWIND
OF LAKE ERIE OVER NW PA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
BREEZY CONDITIONS LAST INTO SATURDAY/FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER WITH
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. THE BULK
OF THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER LOOKS SEASONABLE AND DRY WITH
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FADING OVER NW PA ON SATURDAY. SKY COVER
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE STRATOCU SATURDAY
AND LAYERED CLOUDS SUNDAY DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE
NORTH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND ROUNDS OF LAKE AND
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS NEXT WEEK. TEMPS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY
END TO THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD STRATUS BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WITH
US THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE LIFR TO IFR CIGS
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS, TRENDING TO MVFR THIS MORNING AT JST AND
THIS AFTERNOON AT BFD. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SITES (AOO, UNV,
IPT) ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING,
WITH SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDING MVFR CIGS LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SITES. MDT AND LNS WILL
LIKELY SEE OVERCAST STRATUS IN THE VFR RANGE.
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY
AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. GUSTS TO 30KT FROM THE WEST WILL BE
COMMON WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40KTS AT TIMES DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASE FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...STAYING BREEZY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE.
SUN...MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS COULD BE PERSISTENT,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
MON...INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WIND.
CLIMATE
RECORD RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED AT THREE CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON OCTOBER 30, 2025:
- A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.49" WAS SET AT WILLIAMSPORT, BREAKING
THE OLD RECORD OF 2.00" SET IN 1935. FOR REFERENCE, A
CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT WILLIAMSPORT SINCE
1895.
- A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.87" WAS SET AT HARRISBURG, BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 1.39" SET IN 1917. FOR REFERENCE, A CONTINUOUS
WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
- A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.94" WAS SET AT BRADFORD, BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 0.62" SET IN 2016.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...COLBERT/TYBURSKI
CLIMATE...NPB
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