876
FXUS61 KCTP 311714
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
* GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND
* THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS ON MONDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1 PM UPDATE... SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A
CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COMMONWEALTH, WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80, AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS IS ALL OWING
TO A DEEP, VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE TRACKING FROM NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
WE EXPECT LAKE-ENHANCED BANDS OF SHOWERS TO TARGET NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL PA INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH
INTO NY STATE, AS THE STEERING LAYER FLOW STARTS TO BACK FROM
WNW TO WSW.
WIND GUSTS ARE NEAR THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES PRESENTLY (25-35 MPH
COMMONLY, AND FREQUENTLY 40-50 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL 5-7 PM, THEN WE'LL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE A DROP OFF, AS DIURNAL COOLING CUTS DOWN ON THE
ATMOSPHERE'S ABILITY TO MIX STRONGER FLOW FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
1 PM UPDATE... THIS WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED STACKED CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA, GRADUALLY LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME, ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DPVA
BYPASSING PA TO THE W AND S.
BY SUNDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY ANTICYCLONIC IN THE
LOWER LEVELS TO MINIMIZE ANY RESIDUAL IMPACTS OF WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE, WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE ABOVE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD TRANSLATE TO DIMINISHING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND THEREAFTER.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITH TIME, AS
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD, AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE. THICKER CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TIED TO
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY SHOULD GET SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF
PA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ALTHOUGH SMALL MODEL CORE DIFFERENCES EXIST, CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SIGNALS NEXT WEEK SHOW AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL, ENERGETIC NORTHERN
STREAM FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING FAST MOVING,
GENERALLY MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEMS ACROSS PA ABOUT EVERY 2-3
DAYS, EACH ONE BRINGING A BOUT OF LIGHT RAINFALL. THE FIRST OF
THESE DISTURBANCES IS MOST LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
BY LATER MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FLOW AMPLIFICATION, NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ARE FORESEEN NEXT WEEK (NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER), AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALSO
APPEARS LOW, GIVEN SEEMINGLY INSUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITIES TO TAP
GULF MOISTURE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD STRATUS BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE WITH
US THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
LAURELS AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE LIFR TO IFR CIGS
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS, TRENDING TO MVFR THIS MORNING AT JST AND
THIS AFTERNOON AT BFD. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SITES (AOO, UNV,
IPT) ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING,
WITH SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HOLDING MVFR CIGS LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN SITES. MDT AND LNS WILL
LIKELY SEE OVERCAST STRATUS IN THE VFR RANGE.
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY
AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. GUSTS TO 30KT FROM THE WEST WILL BE
COMMON WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40KTS AT TIMES DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY DECREASE FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...STAYING BREEZY WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE.
SUN...MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS COULD BE PERSISTENT,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AIRSPACE.
MON...INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH BREEZY WEST WIND.
CLIMATE
RECORD RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED AT THREE CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON OCTOBER 30, 2025:
- A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.49" WAS SET AT WILLIAMSPORT, BREAKING
THE OLD RECORD OF 2.00" SET IN 1935. FOR REFERENCE, A
CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT WILLIAMSPORT SINCE
1895.
- A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.87" WAS SET AT HARRISBURG, BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 1.39" SET IN 1917. FOR REFERENCE, A CONTINUOUS
WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
- A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.94" WAS SET AT BRADFORD, BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 0.62" SET IN 2016.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
SYNOPSIS...JUREWICZ
NEAR TERM...JUREWICZ
SHORT TERM...JUREWICZ
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ
AVIATION...COLBERT/TYBURSKI
CLIMATE...NPB
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