351
FXUS61 KCTP 312307
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
707 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
* GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING FOR TRICK OR TREATERS
* MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND
* THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS ON MONDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
1 PM UPDATE... SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A
CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN OVER THE COMMONWEALTH, WITH PERSISTENT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80, AND MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THIS IS ALL OWING
TO A DEEP, VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE TRACKING FROM NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO NOVA SCOTIA.
WE EXPECT LAKE-ENHANCED BANDS OF SHOWERS TO TARGET NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL PA INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH
INTO NY STATE, AS THE STEERING LAYER FLOW STARTS TO BACK FROM
WNW TO WSW.
WIND GUSTS ARE NEAR THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES PRESENTLY (25-35 MPH
COMMONLY, AND FREQUENTLY 40-50 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN).
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL 5-7 PM, THEN WE'LL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE A DROP OFF, AS DIURNAL COOLING CUTS DOWN ON THE
ATMOSPHERE'S ABILITY TO MIX STRONGER FLOW FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
1 PM UPDATE... THIS WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED STACKED CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA, GRADUALLY LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME, ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DPVA
BYPASSING PA TO THE W AND S.
BY SUNDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY ANTICYCLONIC IN THE
LOWER LEVELS TO MINIMIZE ANY RESIDUAL IMPACTS OF WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE, WITH A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
THE ABOVE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD TRANSLATE TO DIMINISHING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST PA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND THEREAFTER.
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT WITH TIME, AS
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD, AS
ALLUDED TO ABOVE. THICKER CLOUDS AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TIED TO
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY SHOULD GET SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF
PA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ALTHOUGH SMALL MODEL CORE DIFFERENCES EXIST, CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SIGNALS NEXT WEEK SHOW AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL, ENERGETIC NORTHERN
STREAM FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING FAST MOVING,
GENERALLY MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEMS ACROSS PA ABOUT EVERY 2-3
DAYS, EACH ONE BRINGING A BOUT OF LIGHT RAINFALL. THE FIRST OF
THESE DISTURBANCES IS MOST LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
BY LATER MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FLOW AMPLIFICATION, NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ARE FORESEEN NEXT WEEK (NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER), AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALSO
APPEARS LOW, GIVEN SEEMINGLY INSUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITIES TO TAP
GULF MOISTURE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
OUR AREA.
MAIN THING THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE, BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN AFTER AROUND
14Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
TODAY.
LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CIGS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
BFD COULD GO MVFR FOR BRIEF TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY SHOWERS.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE NORTH AT BFD, SO USED VCSH
FOR SHOWERS THERE INTO SATURDAY.
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH LESS WIND, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAKER SYSTEMS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
ON MONDAY AND LATER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH, GIVEN THAT THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.
MON...INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND.
WED...VFR CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
RECORD RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED AT THREE CLIMATE SITES ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA ON OCTOBER 30, 2025:
- A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.49" WAS SET AT WILLIAMSPORT, BREAKING
THE OLD RECORD OF 2.00" SET IN 1935. FOR REFERENCE, A
CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT WILLIAMSPORT SINCE
1895.
- A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.87" WAS SET AT HARRISBURG, BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 1.39" SET IN 1917. FOR REFERENCE, A CONTINUOUS
WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG SINCE 1888.
- A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.94" WAS SET AT BRADFORD, BREAKING THE
OLD RECORD OF 0.62" SET IN 2016.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
SYNOPSIS...JUREWICZ
NEAR TERM...JUREWICZ
SHORT TERM...JUREWICZ
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...NPB
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