291
FXUS61 KCTP 010743
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
343 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
*SEASONABLE AND MAINLY DRY TO START NOVEMBER THIS WEEKEND
*PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH BOUTS OF LIGHT PRECIP NEXT WEEK
*BREEZY AT TIMES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IR SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCED STRATOCU COVERING
MOST AREAS TO THE NW OF I-99/US-220 EARLY THIS MORNING. WNW LLVL
WIND FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL BRING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS/SUN
AND A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS. MAX TEMPS
IN THE 45-60F RANGE ARE QUITE SEASONABLE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER CLIMO. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO TONIGHT (NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY).
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER CPA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWS AN UPTICK IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
INCREASE IN CLOUDS, THE DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS
TO FALL 5-10F COLDER VS. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30-40F RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, MAINLY DRY WEATHER/LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND OVERALL LACK OF INTERACTION BETWEEN SPLIT
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. FAVORED AREAS FOR
GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT PRECIP WOULD BE THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHERN TIER. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ALTHOUGH SMALL MODEL CORE DIFFERENCES EXIST, CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SIGNALS NEXT WEEK SHOW AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL (WEST TO EAST),
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD BRING 2 FAST MOVING AND MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES
TO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THESE
TRANSITION SEASON SYSTEMS/FRONTAL PASSAGES. GIVEN THE LACK OF
FLOW AMPLIFICATION, WE DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIP ANOMALIES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
OUR AREA.
MAIN THING THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE, BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN AFTER AROUND
14Z ON SATURDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
TODAY.
LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CIGS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
BFD COULD GO MVFR FOR BRIEF TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY SHOWERS.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE NORTH AT BFD, SO USED VCSH
FOR SHOWERS THERE INTO SATURDAY.
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH LESS WIND, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAKER SYSTEMS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
ON MONDAY AND LATER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH, GIVEN THAT THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.
MON...INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND.
WED...VFR CONDITIONS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
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