162
FXUS61 KCTP 010844
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
444 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
*SEASONABLE AND MAINLY DRY TO START NOVEMBER THIS WEEKEND
*PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH BOUTS OF LIGHT PRECIP NEXT WEEK
*BREEZY AT TIMES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IR SATELLITE SHOWS LAKE AND TERRAIN ENHANCED STRATOCU COVERING
MOST AREAS TO THE NW OF I-99/US-220 EARLY THIS MORNING. WNW LLVL
WIND FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL BRING INTERVALS OF CLOUDS/SUN
AND A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS. MAX TEMPS
IN THE 45-60F RANGE ARE QUITE SEASONABLE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
FIRST DAY OF NOVEMBER CLIMO. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO TONIGHT (NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY).
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER CPA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWS AN UPTICK IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
INCREASE IN CLOUDS, THE DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS
TO FALL 5-10F COLDER VS. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30-40F RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, MAINLY DRY WEATHER/LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND OVERALL LACK OF INTERACTION BETWEEN SPLIT
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES. FAVORED AREAS FOR
GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT PRECIP WOULD BE THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHERN TIER. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ALTHOUGH SMALL MODEL CORE DIFFERENCES EXIST, CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SIGNALS NEXT WEEK SHOW AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL (WEST TO EAST),
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD BRING 2 FAST MOVING AND MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES
TO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THESE
TRANSITION SEASON SYSTEMS/FRONTAL PASSAGES. GIVEN THE LACK OF
FLOW AMPLIFICATION, WE DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIP ANOMALIES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN AREA OF STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS W TO NW FLOW BLOWS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BFD IS THE
ONLY TAF SITE STILL REPORTING MVFR CIGS. ALL OTHERS ARE VFR WITH
CIGS RANGING BETWEEN 3000 AND 6000 FT. BFD IS EXPECTED TO TREND
TOWARDS VFR BY AROUND NOON ON SAT. THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY IS
MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING.
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING,
WITH MOST GUSTS BELOW 20 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL
PICK BACK UP AGAIN AFTER AROUND 14Z ON SATURDAY, BUT WON'T BE AS
STRONG AS WE SAW FRIDAY (MOST GUSTS WILL BE UNDER 30 KTS ON
SAT).
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH LESS WIND, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
WEAKER SYSTEMS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
ON MONDAY AND LATER IN THE WEEK WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AS THEY REMAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND.
WED...PM SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE N/W, OTHERWISE
VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN/COLBERT
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