890
FXUS61 KCTP 011801
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
201 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SEASONABLE AND MAINLY DRY TO START NOVEMBER THIS WEEKEND.
* PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. NO BIG RAINFALL IS IN STORE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
STREAKS OF STRATOCU CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON, AND A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 20+ MPH. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE SEASONABLY COOL, RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 60
DEGREES IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
A WEAK AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWS AN
UPTICK IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
INCREASE IN CLOUDS, THE DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL 5-10F COLDER VS. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30-40F RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, MAINLY DRY WEATHER/LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND OVERALL LACK OF INTERACTION BETWEEN SPLIT
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES.
FAVORED AREAS FOR GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT PRECIP WOULD BE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN TIER. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30
MPH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ALTHOUGH SMALL MODEL CORE DIFFERENCES EXIST, CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SIGNALS NEXT WEEK SHOW AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL (WEST TO EAST),
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING
OCCASIONAL FAST-MOVING AND MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCES TO THE
REGION AROUND MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW EACH OF THESE TRANSITION SEASON
FRONTAL PASSAGES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FLOW AMPLIFICATION, NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIP ANOMALIES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ONLY BFD IS FLIRTING WITH MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
REMAINDER OF AIRFIELDS BEING FIRMLY VFR AS FORECAST.
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WON'T BE AS
STRONG AS WE SAW FRIDAY (MOST GUSTS WILL BE UNDER 30 KTS ON
SAT). WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 10KTS JUST BEFORE 02/00Z
AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH LESS WIND, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. WEAKER SYSTEMS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES ON MONDAY AND LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THEY REMAIN OUT OF PHASE
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.
OUTLOOK...
MON...INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND.
WED...PM SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE N/W, OTHERWISE
VFR.
THU...SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING LATE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ/STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
AVIATION...GARTNER/COLBERT
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