674
FXUS61 KCTP 020110
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
910 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SEASONABLE AND MAINLY DRY TO START NOVEMBER THIS WEEKEND.
* PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. NO BIG RAINFALL IS IN STORE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
CIRRUS ARE INCREASING OVER THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
WEST DIVES SOUTH OF EAST. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRATOCU BUT THEY
SHOULD GET A LITTLE LOWER OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS MORE
CONSOLIDATED. THUS, MOSTLY CLOUDY WORKS FINE. TEMPS MAY STAY UP
A NOTCH FROM CURRENT GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CLOUDS, BUT THE AIR
WILL GO CALM OR NEARLY CALM. SO, WE'LL STICK WITH IT.
PREV...
STREAKS OF STRATOCU CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON, AND A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE IS OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO 20+ MPH. AFTERNOON TEMPS ARE SEASONABLY COOL, RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS TO NEAR 60
DEGREES IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
A WEAK AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER CENTRAL PA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, HIRES MODEL DATA SHOWS AN
UPTICK IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED
INCREASE IN CLOUDS, THE DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO
FALL 5-10F COLDER VS. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE 30-40F RANGE.
SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, MAINLY DRY WEATHER/LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND OVERALL LACK OF INTERACTION BETWEEN SPLIT
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES.
FAVORED AREAS FOR GLANCING BLOWS OF LIGHT PRECIP WOULD BE THE
FAR SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN TIER. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIND GUSTS 20-30
MPH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ALTHOUGH SMALL MODEL CORE DIFFERENCES EXIST, CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SIGNALS NEXT WEEK SHOW AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL (WEST TO EAST),
ENERGETIC NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING
OCCASIONAL FAST-MOVING AND MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCES TO THE
REGION AROUND MIDWEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW EACH OF THESE TRANSITION SEASON
FRONTAL PASSAGES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FLOW AMPLIFICATION, NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIP ANOMALIES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE KEYSTONE STATE WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO
AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF STORMY WEATHER IN
THE COMING WEEK WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTH WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE MAIN
ISSUE FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE COMING WEEK WILL GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.
ANYWAY FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, LOOKING AT SOME HIGH
CI CLOUDS AND SOME LOWER SC CLOUDS. MORE IN THE WAY OF
HIGHER CLOUDS LATER SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
MON...INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY.
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.
WED...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE N/W, OTHERWISE VFR.
THU...SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING LATE.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/EVANEGO
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
LONG TERM...JUREWICZ/STEINBUGL/EVANEGO
AVIATION...MARTIN
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