979
FXUS61 KCTP 021735
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1235 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH TUESDAY
* ROUNDS/BOUTS OF SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
* SEVERAL BREEZY TO WINDY PERIODS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
GOODBYE TO DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME AND HELLO TO STANDARD TIME ON
THIS TURN BACK THE CLOCK/FIRST SUNDAY OF NOVEMBER. PARTLY SUNNY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
TICKING A BIT HIGHER VS. SATURDAY (PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NW
ALLEGHENIES) INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
CPA WILL BE IN A NARROW DRY WEDGE/RAIN-FREE ZONE BETWEEN A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A
SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTHEAST MO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOME LIGHT RAIN TIED TO THESE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES COULD APPROACH THE FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST CORNERS
OF THE CWA BY 12Z MONDAY, BUT THE LATEST HIRES ENSEMBLE DATA
KEEPS POPS AT OR BELOW 10%. SKY COVER TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM
MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM NW TO SE WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE 30-40F RANGE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LOW AMPLITUDE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS/DISTURBANCES
MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH AND
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. MAX GUSTS IN
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF
THE CWA, BUT MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH BASED ON FCST SOUNDING DATA.
A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE OVERALL LAKE EFFECT
RESPONSE DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE. SEASONAL TEMPS ON
BALANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS TRENDING SLIGHTLY
LOWER ON TUESDAY (LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60F).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE PATTERN, WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEMS. THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF
EACH FAST MOVING SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITHIN
THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW - PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD/OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW, PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED
INSIDE THE 18Z WED-18Z THU WINDOW WITH PERHAPS TWO ADDITIONAL
BOUTS OF SHOWERS BETWEEN FRIDAY PM AND SUNDAY. EXPECT A BREEZY
TO WINDY PERIOD TO ACCOMPANY AND FOLLOW EACH PASSING UPPER WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL TEMPS ARE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NW MTNS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SIGNAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF PA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE THESE
CLOUDS SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY, SO WENT WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AT ALL SITES.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY,
AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
LIKELY TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WOULD BE BFD. SOME HINTS
THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO MDT
AND LNS ON MONDAY AS WELL, GIVEN A LOW TO OUR SOUTH. LEFT THESE
TWO SITES DRY FOR NOW, AS WE WOULD BE ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
OVERALL MUCH OF THE STORMY WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL STAY TO THE
SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE MAIN ISSUE FROM TIME TO
TIME WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND BANDS OF FAST MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.
WED...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE N/W, OTHERWISE VFR.
THU...SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING LATE.
FRI...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. RETRICTIONS POSSIBLE. BECOMING WINDY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...MARTIN
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