306
FXUS61 KCTP 021856
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
156 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SEASONABLE AND DRY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH TUESDAY,
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO NORTHERN PA ON MONDAY.
* ROUNDS/BOUTS OF SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* SEVERAL BREEZY TO WINDY PERIODS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OBSERVED NEAR THE PA/NJ BORDER
WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE DRIFTING EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS EVENING. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-
TERM WITH RADAR ECHOS ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND HAVING TO CONTEND
WITH DRY AIR TO GET TO THE SURFACE. CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH RECENT
HREF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS
WEEK WITH THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS CROSSING THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY, WITH PWATS IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST SLIGHTLY INCREASING POPS IN THE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING
ABOUT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, FORECAST WIND GUSTS
IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE, WITH THE CEILING CLOSER TO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE. GIVEN THIS CEILING, NO FLAGS OUT FOR A WIND ADVISORY
THIS CYCLE, ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE/FORECAST SOUNDING DATA.
WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHOWERS LIMITED TO FAR WESTERN WARREN
COUNTY WITH ANY REMAINING LAKE RESPONSE. ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY SUNRISE,
GIVING WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER IN THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD (TUESDAY NIGHT) AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
WILL APPROACH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TO OUTLINE FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH REGARDS TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WITH THE MOST UNCERTAIN
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST MANIFESTING WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON
THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DISTURBANCE, WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
UNCERTAINTY/ACTIVITY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENT FORECAST
OUTLINES SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80 DUE TO
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES; HOWEVER, BETTER CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL COME ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF PA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON HAS RESULTED IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE THESE
CLOUDS SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY, SO WENT WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AT ALL SITES.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY,
AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
LIKELY TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. HIGHEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER WOULD BE BFD. SOME HINTS
THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO MDT
AND LNS ON MONDAY AS WELL, GIVEN A LOW TO OUR SOUTH. LEFT THESE
TWO SITES DRY FOR NOW, AS WE WOULD BE ON THE EXTREME NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM.
OVERALL MUCH OF THE STORMY WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL STAY TO THE
SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE MAIN ISSUE FROM TIME TO
TIME WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND BANDS OF FAST MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.
WED...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE N/W, OTHERWISE VFR.
THU...SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING LATE.
FRI...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. BECOMING WINDY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/NPB
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...NPB
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/NPB
AVIATION...MARTIN
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