287
FXUS61 KCTP 031213
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
713 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
* SEASONABLY MILD AND BREEZY/WINDY WEEK AHEAD FOR CENTRAL PA
* RECURRENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND
* TRENDING COLDER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IR SAT TRENDS SHOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHIELD OF RAIN CREEPING
NORTHWARD FROM WASHINGTON D.C. TO CAPE MAY, NJ INTO A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS. HIRES MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
I95, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN CLIPPING THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA LATER THIS MORNING (POP<20%).
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE NW OF I99/US220 IS ALLOWING FOR FOG
FORMATION IN THE NORTH CENTRAL RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS. PREDAWN AND
DAYBREAK TEMPS IN THIS AREA OF THE CWA WILL BE MODULATED BY
ELEVATION AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WITH SOME NOTABLE 10+
DEGREE DIFFERENCES OVER A SHORT DISTANCE.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY WILL BE IN
THE NW MTNS AS A MID LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH RAPIDLY
TRAVERSES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH THE FAST
MOVING TROUGH AND BRISK/GUSTY WNWLY CROSS LAKE LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PROBABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF US-6 IN
WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTIES.
WITH THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED TO THE FAR NW AND SE PARTS
OF THE AREA, EXPECT A SEASONABLY MILD AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY
DAY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AREA WITH EARLY SUN GIVING WAY TO
CLOUDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S (+5-10F ABOVE CLIMO
OVER THE RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION). MAX WIND GUSTS ARE 25-35 MPH
OVER THE ALLEGHENIES.
BREEZY CONDITIONS LAST INTO TONIGHT WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER TN/KY AND COASTAL LOW BOMBING OUT
EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. STRATOCU EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE
ALONG WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE/FADE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES IS ESTABLISHED WITH A
SERIES OF QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BRINGING A
RECURRENT DRY/SHOWERY/BREEZY SENSIBLE WEATHER CADENCE THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DRY,
MOSTLY SUNNY, AND NOT AS BREEZY DAY TUESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS
STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE IN THE 50-60F
RANGE.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW/TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, MAX TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO GET RATHER
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (AS MUCH AS 10-12F ABOVE CLIMO) WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING LAKE ENHANCED AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS (PRIMARILY
FOCUSED DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS)
AND ANOTHER BREEZY TO BLUSTERY/WINDY PERIOD INTO THURSDAY.
CURRENT FCST MAX GUSTS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE 30-40
MPH RANGE, BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT A WIND ADVISORY YET AS FCST
SOUNDINGS AND SHORTER DURATION PRESSURE RISES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER/STRONGER WIND GUSTS >40 MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
BRISK/WINDY START THURSDAY SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RESTARTS THE DRY/SHOWERY/BREEZY CADENCE. THE REPEAT
PATTERN EVOLVES YET AGAIN BY FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH MIGRATING OFF
THE COAST, ALLOWING A FAST AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW/WAA TO
EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME TIMING DIFFS START TO
SHOW UP WITH THE FRONTAL PRECIP ON FRIDAY, BUT ON BALANCE IT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOWERY AND BREEZY PERIOD TO END THE WEEK.
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW THIS WEEKS ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE
FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LARGE SCALE EVOLUTION WOULD CONSIST OF A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DELIVERING
MUCH COLDER/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY VETERAN'S DAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ONE LAST SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AND DRIVING SHOWERY PRECIP ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A PERSISTENT CHILLY CYCLONIC/NW FLOW. ALTHOUGH IT'S
STILL A WEEK OR SO OUT ON THE HORIZON, THERE FAVORABLE SIGNALS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF THE SEASON SOMETIME EARLY NEXT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOG FORMATION AT IPT IS EXPECTED TO BRING CONTINUED
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 14-15Z WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAGNITUDE OF
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK WITH RESPECT
TO IPT IN THE NEAR-TERM GIVEN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH THE FOG FORMATION, SO HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS GLAMP
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE AND ADDED ANOTHER HOUR GIVEN THAT FOG SEEMS
TO BE CONTINUING TO EXPAND ON MOST RECENT ECONUS NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS. AFTER FOG RESOLVES ITSELF AT IPT, HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE OUTSIDE OF BFD, WHERE RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE (GLAMP/HREF) OUTLINES BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE 21 MON TO 01Z TUE TIMEFRAME.
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY-
TO-WESTERLY WIND THIS MORNING FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS APPROACHING THE 20-25KT RANGE AT ALL
AIRFIELDS THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. TIMING REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT, THUS THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND/GUST
TIMING IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. SIGNALS FOR RAIN AT BFD REMAIN
CONSISTENT BETWEEN 17-22Z MON; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA AT
THE TERMINAL REMAINS LOW (~20%) TO WARRANT EVEN PROB30/TEMPO
MENTIONS THIS CYCLE, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MOVING
FORWARD. INCREASING LLWS CONCERNS LATER IN THE TAF PACKAGE AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NE OF THE REGION BOMBS OUT HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED THIS TAF CYCLE AT ALL AIRFIELDS OUTSIDE OF MDT/LNS
WHERE LLWS REMAINS A NON-ZERO THREAT (~30-40%) BUT THREAT
REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.
WED...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE N/W, OTHERWISE VFR.
THU...SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING LATE.
FRI...INCREASING CLOUDS WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. BECOMING WINDY.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/NPB
AVIATION...NPB
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