603
FXUS61 KCTP 070220
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
920 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
* MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NOT AS COLD TO START THE 1ST WEEKEND OF
DECEMBER
* PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ALLEGHENIES THIS WEEKEND; MINOR ACCUMULATION (T-1.5") EXPECTED
SUNDAY IN THE NW
* COLD WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WITH
CLIPPER SYSTEMS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
CLOUDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY BEARING ANY PRECIP OVER THE CWA. THE
CLOUDS HAVE STRETCHED A BIT FARTHER SE THAN MACHINE FORECAST,
AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY. THE DECK IS FAIRLY THIN,
SO IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME THINNING/BREAKS WILL OCCUR FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE MORE CLOUDS (HIGHER DECKS) MOVE OVER
THOSE AREAS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM DIPPING TOO FAR OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
PREV...
MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT TIED TO SFC LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY...FOLLOWED BY A SHORT WINDOW OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WNWLY
CROSS-LAKE WIND WILL RESULT IN LIGHT, LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SPILLING SOUTHEAST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE NW
MTNS ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT INTO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. LIGHT SNOW WILL REPOSITION ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND
COME TO AN END IN THE NW MTNS EARLY TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
WIND TRAJECTORY BACKS TO THE WSW. AS THE LAYER OF MOISTURE
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW, THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN IT MAY BE PREDOMINANTLY
COMPOSED OF SUPERCOOLED LIQUID AND RESULT IN SPOTTY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOCALIZED AND MINIMAL.
SHORT TERM /9 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SPLIT/NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW PRIMARILY TO THE NW
ALLEGHENIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM NBM, WPC AND RRFS HAVE ALL
TRENDED A BIT LOWER IN THE 1-2" RANGE OVER WARREN/MCKEAN AND
C-1" ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. DON'T EXPECT MUCH MORE
THAN A FEW FLURRIES OR SPOTTY FZDZ INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRIER AIR POISED TO
ACCOMPANY MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST.
1030MB HIGH MIGRATING OVER CPA WILL ENSURE DRY AND COLD WX ON
MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FCST TO STAY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS BITTER COLD TO FRIGID WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER NORTHERN/SPLIT STREAM TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER WITH
ANOTHER LIGHT SNOWFALL.
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED FOR THE
MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE EAST
AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN STATES.
SEVERAL CLIPPERS MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE
MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTER PTYPE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST A MORE WELL DEVELOPED STORM
IMPACTING THE MID ATL FRIDAY.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA AS OF LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT, MAINLY
AT BFD AND PERHAPS JST, WHERE THE CIGS ARE CLOSER TO THE GROUND.
WINDS A BIT GUSTY, ESPECIALLY AT JST, BUT WILL WEAKEN IN A FEW
HOURS.
WAS EXPECTING SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IMPROVEMENT CAME
EARLIER THAN I EXPECTED, THEN LEFT BY THE TIME I CAME IN THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS THIS MAY HAPPEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY, AS WINDS SHIFT
BACK MORE THE SOUTHWEST, AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
MAIN CHANCE FOR SNOW LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AT BFD.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
CEILINGS MY DIP TO IFR AT BFD AND JST BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MODEL RH PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE MVFR STRATUS
DECK SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH IPT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MDT AND
LNS WILL REMAIN VFR.
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH PROB OF IFR INCREASING ACROSS
THE WESTERN AIRFIELDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS LOW CIGS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW (MAINLY WEST OF UNV).
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR
TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW OR MIXED PTYPE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA, AS MULTIPLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. GUSTS
20-30 KTS.
CLIMATE
* ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 21ST
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/COLBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN/COLBERT/BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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