253
FXUS61 KCTP 070905
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
405 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
* LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COMES TO AN END BY LATE TONIGHT
* COLD DAY ON MONDAY PRECEDES BITTERLY COLD TO FRIGID CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
* BRIEF THAW WEDNESDAY ALLOWS FOR MIXED PRECIP FOLLOWED BY AN
ARCTIC RESURGENCE AND ENHANCED SNOW/WIND CHANCES LATE WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
IR SAT LOOP SHOWS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER BLANKETING CPA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER VS. NBM/PREV FCST.
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NW ALLEGHENIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE
SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SNOW WILL END AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER WITH <1"
NOW FCST ALONG PARTS OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS MODIFIED
ARCTIC HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW CLOUDS
COULD LINGER IN THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE LAURELS WHILE
OTHER LOCATIONS PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT. MIN TEMPS ARE FCST IN
10-20F RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE NW MTNS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
1030MB HIGH MIGRATING OVER CPA WILL ENSURE DRY AND COLD WX ON
MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FCST TO STAY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
A QUICK MOVING 500MB TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
NOT IMPACT CPA, MODEL TRENDS HAVE BROUGHT SNOW MUCH FARTHER
NORTH INTO THE WV/MD PANHANDLE.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS BITTERLY COLD TO FRIGID WITH LOWS IN THE
0-15F RANGE. DEWPOINTS AT KBFD WOULD FAVOR A SUBZERO MINT
PRINT; HOWEVER WESTERN SITES COULD BOTTOM EARLY AND TREND
NEUTRAL TO NON-DIURNAL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND BLUE RIDGE MTNS BY 12Z TUE. QUICK
CHECK OF DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPS DOES NOT SOUND ANY ALARMS, BUT
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME ROOM TO THE DOWNSIDE IN THE FCST.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LIFT AND WAA AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD BRUSH THE NW PART OF THE CWA WITH ANOTHER
LIGHT SNOWFALL (<1") BY 00Z WED.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, AN INTENSE MID-980S MB CLIPPER LOW WILL BE
RACING THROUGH WI AND INTO MI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WAA OUT
AHEAD OF THIS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP, MORE INTENSE THAN MOST CLIPPER
(BY HISTORICAL/CLIMATOLOGICAL MSLP STANDARDS) IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW (C-2") ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE
CWA FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. MIXED PTYPE ISSUES APPEAR
LIKELY INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE STRONG CLIPPER LOW TRACKS UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. GUSTY SW FLOW TRANSPORTS MILDER AIR INTO CPA
RESULTING IN A BRIEF THAW AND RAIN/WET SNOW OR ALL RAIN PTYPES
WITH HIGHS 35-45F.
COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A
BLUSTERY NW FLOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW
INTO THURSDAY. MAX WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY TREND HIGHER AT
SHORTER RANGES.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CLIPPER SYSTEM TAKE
AIM ON THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE WEEKEND. ODDS FOR POTENTIAL SNOW AND WIND
IMPACTS ARE ELEVATED WITH OBVIOUS TIMING UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
FORECAST LENGTH.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR/LOW-END VFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD AND
NOW BLANKETS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. HREF PROBS FOR IFR
CEILINGS THE REST OF TONIGHT ARE HIGHEST AT JST (80-90%), THOUGH
A PERIOD OF IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT BFD PRIOR TO SUNRISE. MVFR
OR VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO JST AFTER SUNRISE FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS INTO NORTHWESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE FOR THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR AT BFD
AND JST AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE AT BFD, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY,
BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS UNV (<10% CHANCE).
SNOW COMES TO AN END BETWEEN 00Z-03Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. SKIES WILL FIRST BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS AS A DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS, AND A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AIRSPACE INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MON...MAINLY VFR
TUE-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW OR MIXED PTYPE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA, AS MULTIPLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. GUSTS
20-30 KTS.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON SUNDAY,
DECEMBER 21ST
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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