535
FXUS61 KCTP 080106
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
806 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NW TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHILE WARMER
AIR FAVORS LESS/NO ACCUM AND/OR MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE
* GUSTY WINDS LATER WED BRING A RESURGENCE OF COLD AIR FOR THU
WITH ADDITIONAL COLD SHOTS INTO THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH BUT DRYING RIGHT TO THE ERIE SHORELINE AT
01Z. EXPECT THE CLEARING LINE TO ADVANCE, BUT SOME CLOUDS TO
PERCOLATE OFF THE LAKE. CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS
OVER THE FORECAST CURVE, BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE LATER TONIGHT.
STILL THINKING THAT IT'LL BE MORE CLEAR THAN CLOUDY LATER
TONIGHT. FLURRIES CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY THRU
TIME.
PREV...
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NW ALLEGHENIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE
SYNOPTICALLY FORCED SNOW WILL END AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER WITH
T-0.5" NOW FCST IN THE NW MOUNTAINS.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS MODIFIED
ARCTIC HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW CLOUDS
COULD LINGER IN THE NORTHERN TIER AND OVER THE LAURELS WHILE
OTHER LOCATIONS PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT. MIN TEMPS ARE FCST IN
10-20F RANGE FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN
THE NW MTNS. TEMPS NEAR/BELOW 0F CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN PLACES
LIKE BRADFORD IF SKIES DO CLEAR OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES BEFORE DAWN (~20 PCT CHC).
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
1030MB HIGH MIGRATING OVER CPA WILL ENSURE DRY AND COLD WX ON
MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FCST TO STAY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
A QUICK MOVING 500MB TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
NOT IMPACT CENTRAL PA, WE'LL SEE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE -5 TO +15F RANGE. WESTERN SITES COULD SEE MINTS EARLY
AND TREND NEUTRAL TO NON- DIURNAL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND BLUE RIDGE MTNS BY 12Z
TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LIFT AND WAA AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD BRUSH THE NW PART OF THE CWA WITH ANOTHER
LIGHT SNOWFALL (<1") BY 00Z WED.
AN INTENSE MID-980S MB CLIPPER LOW WILL BE RACING THROUGH WI
AND INTO MI TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WAA OUT AHEAD OF
THIS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP, MORE INTENSE THAN MOST CLIPPER (BY
HISTORICAL/CLIMATOLOGICAL MSLP STANDARDS) IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW (C-2") ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. BY WED AFTERNOON, 24-HOUR SNOW
TOTALS MAY APPROACH 2-4" IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. AS THE
PRECIP EXPANDS EAST DURING THE DAY WED, IT WILL LIKELY BE MIXED
WITH RAIN OR FALL AS PLAIN RAIN.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVE/NIGHT, ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A BLUSTERY NW FLOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER LAKE
EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW. MAX WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. ANOTHER VIGOROUS 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CLIPPER SYSTEM TAKE AIM ON THE AREA IN THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW, AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY
WINDS (35+ MPH POSSIBLE). LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND IN A CAA REGIME.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT FOR A SMALL TIME LATE THIS AFT.
A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW EARLY ON TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AT SITES LIKE
BFD AND JST. MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES INTO AOO AND UNV.
LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY SNOW FURTHER EAST AT IPT, MDT, AND
LNS.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT, AND
DEWPOINTS DROP, LESS CHANCE OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
FOR MONDAY, EXPECT CIGS TO COME UP WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SNOW COMES TO AN END BY 03-06Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. SKIES WILL FIRST BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS AS A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPS AFTER 00Z, AND A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AIRSPACE INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS AT IPT, MDT, AND LNS. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, STARTING OFF W SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN NW MUCH OF
TONIGHT, AND BECOMING NE BY MON AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW OR MIXED PTYPE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA, AS MULTIPLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. GUSTS
15-30 KTS, AND UP TO 40 KTS IN THE LAURELS LATE WED.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON SUNDAY,
DECEMBER 21ST
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/COLBERT
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN/COLBERT/BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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