019
FXUS61 KCTP 080425
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1125 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NW TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHILE WARMER
AIR FAVORS LESS/NO ACCUM AND/OR MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE
* GUSTY WINDS LATER WED BRING A RESURGENCE OF COLD AIR FOR THU
WITH ADDITIONAL COLD SHOTS INTO THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/
FLURRIES JUST ABOUT GONE. DRYING COMING ACROSS THE LAKE IS
STARTING TO MAKE INROADS TO THE CWA. WE SHOULD SEE A PATCHY BUT
SLOW DECREASE IN SKY COVER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY DROP NICELY IN
THE FAR N, BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO LOSE THE WIND, AND THAT LOOKS
LIKE A LOW PROB. WILL HOLD MINS AS IS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
11 PM UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE NBM GUIDANCE THIS EVENING ARE TO UP POPS
AND QPF/SNOW DURING THE TUES AFTN PERIOD WITH GOOD WAA AND QPF
BEING MADE BY ALL BUT THE ECMWF. THAT CHANGE BUMPS THE 36-HR
SNOW TOTAL OVER THE NW (WARREN AND MCKEAN) CLOSE TO 6". HOWEVER,
I GUESS WE CAN THEN DEBATE THE FINER POINTS OF WHETHER THIS ALL
COUNTS AS "ONE STORM" TO WARRANT ANY ADVYS OR WATCHES. ALSO
KEPT THE WIND GUSTS HIGHER FOR WED AS THE DAY SHIFT DID WITH
40-50KT SWRLY WINDS NOT TOO HIGH UP.
PREV...
1030MB HIGH MIGRATING OVER CPA WILL ENSURE DRY AND COLD WX ON
MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FCST TO STAY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
A QUICK MOVING 500MB TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
NOT IMPACT CENTRAL PA, WE'LL SEE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE -5 TO +15F RANGE. WESTERN SITES COULD SEE MINTS EARLY
AND TREND NEUTRAL TO NON- DIURNAL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND BLUE RIDGE MTNS BY 12Z
TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LIFT AND WAA AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD BRUSH THE NW PART OF THE CWA WITH ANOTHER
LIGHT SNOWFALL (<1") BY 00Z WED.
AN INTENSE MID-980S MB CLIPPER LOW WILL BE RACING THROUGH WI
AND INTO MI TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WAA OUT AHEAD OF
THIS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP, MORE INTENSE THAN MOST CLIPPER (BY
HISTORICAL/CLIMATOLOGICAL MSLP STANDARDS) IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW (C-2") ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. BY WED AFTERNOON, 24-HOUR SNOW
TOTALS MAY APPROACH 2-4" IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. AS THE
PRECIP EXPANDS EAST DURING THE DAY WED, IT WILL LIKELY BE MIXED
WITH RAIN OR FALL AS PLAIN RAIN.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVE/NIGHT, ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A BLUSTERY NW FLOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER LAKE
EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW. MAX WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. ANOTHER VIGOROUS 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CLIPPER SYSTEM TAKE AIM ON THE AREA IN THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW, AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY
WINDS (35+ MPH POSSIBLE). LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND IN A CAA REGIME.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SOME BRIEF IMPROVEMENT FOR A SMALL TIME LATE THIS AFT.
A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW EARLY ON TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AT SITES LIKE
BFD AND JST. MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES INTO AOO AND UNV.
LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY SNOW FURTHER EAST AT IPT, MDT, AND
LNS.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT, AND
DEWPOINTS DROP, LESS CHANCE OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.
FOR MONDAY, EXPECT CIGS TO COME UP WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SNOW COMES TO AN END BY 03-06Z MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. SKIES WILL FIRST BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS AS A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WIND
DEVELOPS AFTER 00Z, AND A TREND TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AIRSPACE INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS AT IPT, MDT, AND LNS. WIND DIRECTION WILL VEER THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, STARTING OFF W SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN NW MUCH OF
TONIGHT, AND BECOMING NE BY MON AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW OR MIXED PTYPE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA, AS MULTIPLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. GUSTS
15-30 KTS, AND UP TO 40 KTS IN THE LAURELS LATE WED.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON SUNDAY,
DECEMBER 21ST
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/COLBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/COLBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...MARTIN/COLBERT/BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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