114
FXUS61 KCTP 080538
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1238 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NW TUE NIGHT INTO WED WHILE WARMER
AIR FAVORS LESS/NO ACCUM AND/OR MIXED PRECIP ELSEWHERE
* GUSTY WINDS LATER WED BRING A RESURGENCE OF COLD AIR FOR THU
WITH ADDITIONAL COLD SHOTS INTO THE WEEKEND
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
FLURRIES JUST ABOUT GONE. DRYING COMING ACROSS THE LAKE IS
STARTING TO MAKE INROADS TO THE CWA. WE SHOULD SEE A PATCHY BUT
SLOW DECREASE IN SKY COVER OVERNIGHT. TEMPS MAY DROP NICELY IN
THE FAR N, BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO LOSE THE WIND, AND THAT LOOKS
LIKE A LOW PROB. WILL HOLD MINS AS IS.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
11 PM UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE NBM GUIDANCE THIS EVENING ARE TO UP POPS
AND QPF/SNOW DURING THE TUES AFTN PERIOD WITH GOOD WAA AND QPF
BEING MADE BY ALL BUT THE ECMWF. THAT CHANGE BUMPS THE 36-HR
SNOW TOTAL OVER THE NW (WARREN AND MCKEAN) CLOSE TO 6". HOWEVER,
I GUESS WE CAN THEN DEBATE THE FINER POINTS OF WHETHER THIS ALL
COUNTS AS "ONE STORM" TO WARRANT ANY ADVYS OR WATCHES. ALSO
KEPT THE WIND GUSTS HIGHER FOR WED AS THE DAY SHIFT DID WITH
40-50KT SWRLY WINDS NOT TOO HIGH UP.
PREV...
1030MB HIGH MIGRATING OVER CPA WILL ENSURE DRY AND COLD WX ON
MONDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FCST TO STAY BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.
A QUICK MOVING 500MB TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
NOT IMPACT CENTRAL PA, WE'LL SEE MIDLEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS BITTERLY COLD AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE -5 TO +15F RANGE. WESTERN SITES COULD SEE MINTS EARLY
AND TREND NEUTRAL TO NON- DIURNAL AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND BLUE RIDGE MTNS BY 12Z
TUE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK LIFT AND WAA AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE COULD BRUSH THE NW PART OF THE CWA WITH ANOTHER
LIGHT SNOWFALL (<1") BY 00Z WED.
AN INTENSE MID-980S MB CLIPPER LOW WILL BE RACING THROUGH WI
AND INTO MI TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WAA OUT AHEAD OF
THIS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP, MORE INTENSE THAN MOST CLIPPER (BY
HISTORICAL/CLIMATOLOGICAL MSLP STANDARDS) IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW (C-2") ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA FOR
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. BY WED AFTERNOON, 24-HOUR SNOW
TOTALS MAY APPROACH 2-4" IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. AS THE
PRECIP EXPANDS EAST DURING THE DAY WED, IT WILL LIKELY BE MIXED
WITH RAIN OR FALL AS PLAIN RAIN.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVE/NIGHT, ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A BLUSTERY NW FLOW. THIS WILL TRIGGER LAKE
EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW. MAX WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. ANOTHER VIGOROUS 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
CLIPPER SYSTEM TAKE AIM ON THE AREA IN THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME.
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW, AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY
WINDS (35+ MPH POSSIBLE). LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND IN A CAA REGIME.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BEFORE SUNRISE. THE LAST SITE TO SEE THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WILL BE JST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED
AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT, WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING. ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AGAIN DURING THE EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW OR MIXED PTYPE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA, AS MULTIPLE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. GUSTS
15-30 KTS, AND UP TO 40 KTS IN THE LAURELS LATE WED.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON SUNDAY,
DECEMBER 21ST
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/COLBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/STEINBUGL/COLBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/COLBERT
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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