137
FXUS61 KCTP 102040
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
340 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
*WINDY AND COLDER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TRANSITION TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW
*LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER THURSDAY
*ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BACK EDGE OF WAA RAIN/SNOW/SLEET PUSHING EAST OF ROUTE 219 AT
20Z. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON A STEADY TO RISING TREND INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE SWEEPS
THROUGH CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE FRONT END OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN VERY
MARGINAL TO ABOVE FREEZING AIR/ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RWIS
AND MVIEW WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS ARE JUST WET IN MOST OF THE CWA.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT,
POST-FRONTAL CAA WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
STORM WILL KICK-START THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) MACHINE.
GUSTY WINDS 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DELIVER THE COLDER AIR
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY 12Z
THU. WET SURFACES AND SLUSH COULD REFREEZE AND MAY RESULT IN
SLICK SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
WINDY AND 10-20 DEGREES COLDER TOMORROW WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND BANDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL PA.
SNSQ PARAMETER SIGNAL MAXIMIZES RISK ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OR
TO THE NORTH OF I80 INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL, LONG-DURATION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELTS GENERALLY RANGES FROM 3-6"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8" OR SO POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT BANDS. LES SHOULD FADE OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON; NEXT
CLIPPER SLIDES TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD CLIP THE SW MTNS WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH
A BETTER SIGNAL FOCUSING ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER/MORE POTENT
CLIPPER DISTURBANCES TRANSLATES AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.
COLD AND WINDY BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SIGNS
OF A BRIEF? THAW HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
PA AS OF 19Z WED. PRECIP IS MIXING WITH/ALL RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND ALSO IN PLACES WHERE IT IS FALLING VERY LIGHTLY.
THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF PL BETWEEN THV AND MUI.
LLWS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A 40 TO 50
KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET TRAVERSES THE REGION. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WED EVENING INTO THU, WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE WEST AND
INCREASE WITH SFC GUSTS 15-35 KTS (HIGHEST FOR JST AND AOO).
PRECIPITATION ENDS FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA BY 00Z THURSDAY AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST, BUT LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR BFD AND JST. MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY 06-09Z THU, BUT MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AT BFD AND JST, WITH DROPS TO IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN
SNOW SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
THU...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE, MAINLY N/W PA. WINDY.
FRI-MON...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON SUNDAY,
DECEMBER 21ST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ012-018-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...COLBERT/BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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