391
FXUS61 KCTP 110040
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
740 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
*WINDY AND COLDER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TRANSITION TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW
*LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER THURSDAY
*ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
BACK EDGE OF WAA RAIN/SNOW/SLEET PUSHING EAST OF ROUTE 219 AT
20Z. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON A STEADY TO RISING TREND INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE SWEEPS
THROUGH CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE FRONT END OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN VERY
MARGINAL TO ABOVE FREEZING AIR/ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RWIS
AND MVIEW WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS ARE JUST WET IN MOST OF THE CWA.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT,
POST-FRONTAL CAA WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
STORM WILL KICK-START THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) MACHINE.
GUSTY WINDS 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DELIVER THE COLDER AIR
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY 12Z
THU. WET SURFACES AND SLUSH COULD REFREEZE AND MAY RESULT IN
SLICK SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
WINDY AND 10-20 DEGREES COLDER TOMORROW WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND BANDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL PA.
SNSQ PARAMETER SIGNAL MAXIMIZES RISK ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OR
TO THE NORTH OF I80 INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL, LONG-DURATION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELTS GENERALLY RANGES FROM 3-6"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8" OR SO POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT BANDS. LES SHOULD FADE OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON; NEXT
CLIPPER SLIDES TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD CLIP THE SW MTNS WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH
A BETTER SIGNAL FOCUSING ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER/MORE POTENT
CLIPPER DISTURBANCES TRANSLATES AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.
COLD AND WINDY BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SIGNS
OF A BRIEF? THAW HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE EARLIER CLIPPER SYSTEM
HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA, OUTSIDE OF SOME LIGHT RETURNS NEAR
LNS THAT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOCUS SHIFTS
TOWARDS LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA (BFD/JST) WITH CHANCES (30-40%) OF SNOW REACHING
AOO/UNV/IPT BETWEEN 00-06Z THURSDAY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TREND
AND COMPARING TO 12Z HREF GUIDANCE AS A PROXY. MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO THE LAURELS/NW PA,
BRINGING MVFR THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION THROUGH 12Z. SOME
BRIEF DROPS TO IFR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE (~30-40%) BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GO IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES IN THE 12Z THU TO 00Z FRI TIMEFRAME
WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR ANY MENTIONS
AT JST. SNOW MENTIONS AT JST HAVE BEEN MORE FINE TUNED FOR THE
00Z TAF PACKAGE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME OF THE MORE LIKELY WINDOWS FOR
ANY SNOWFALL; HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO BECOME SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA (BFD) LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RECENT CIPS
ANALOGS OUTLINING THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF THE PA-NY BORDER;
HOWEVER, STILL REMAINS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN WITH FAVORABLE LIFT
IN THE REGION AND HAVE MENTIONED A WINDOW FOR SNOW SQUALL
POTENTIAL AT BFD WHERE HEAVY SNOW COULD BRING LIFR CONDITIONS TO
THE AIRFIELD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (~30%) ON EXACT BAND
PLACEMENT; HOWEVER, SIGNALS IN MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON RECENT RUNS TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE 00Z TAF
PACKAGE WHERE FUTURE SHIFTS CAN FINE-TUNE THIS POTENTIAL.
MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING WIDESPREAD GUSTS
EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH HIGHER
ELEVATIONS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS. ONSET TIMING REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE, SO RELATIVELY HIGH (~80%)
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE WITH RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS 18Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON SUNDAY,
DECEMBER 21ST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ012-018-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ024-
033.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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