651
FXUS61 KCTP 110547
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1247 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
*WINDY AND COLDER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TRANSITION TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW
*LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AND SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER THURSDAY
*ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
BACK EDGE OF WAA RAIN/SNOW/SLEET PUSHING EAST OF ROUTE 219 AT
20Z. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON A STEADY TO RISING TREND INTO THE
EVENING BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LAKE ERIE SWEEPS
THROUGH CENTRAL PA LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE FRONT END OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN VERY
MARGINAL TO ABOVE FREEZING AIR/ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RWIS
AND MVIEW WEBCAMS SHOW ROADS ARE JUST WET IN MOST OF THE CWA.
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT,
POST-FRONTAL CAA WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
STORM WILL KICK-START THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) MACHINE.
GUSTY WINDS 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DELIVER THE COLDER AIR
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BY 12Z
THU. WET SURFACES AND SLUSH COULD REFREEZE AND MAY RESULT IN
SLICK SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
WINDY AND 10-20 DEGREES COLDER TOMORROW WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND BANDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL PA.
SNSQ PARAMETER SIGNAL MAXIMIZES RISK ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OR
TO THE NORTH OF I80 INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL, LONG-DURATION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELTS GENERALLY RANGES FROM 3-6"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8" OR SO POSSIBLE IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT BANDS. LES SHOULD FADE OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON; NEXT
CLIPPER SLIDES TO THE SOUTH BUT COULD CLIP THE SW MTNS WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH
A BETTER SIGNAL FOCUSING ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER/MORE POTENT
CLIPPER DISTURBANCES TRANSLATES AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES.
COLD AND WINDY BEHIND THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME SIGNS
OF A BRIEF? THAW HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO NORTHWEST PA THROUGH SUNRISE.
OUTSIDE OF BFD AND JST, EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR BY
12-14Z. SNOWFALL RATES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL INCREASE AFTER
14Z AS THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS SHOULD BRING
MODERATE SNOWFALL INTO BFD, DROPPING VISIBILITY TO IFR. THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BANDS, ANY BANDS MOVING DIRECTLY
OVER THE AIRFIELD WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN VISIBILITY DROPPING
BELOW 1/2SM.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS (STRONGEST
AT JST AND AOO). LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE AT BFD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS
BRIEFLY RISE TO VFR AT JST DURING THE EVENING, BUT WILL LOWER
TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRI-MON...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE WITH
MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON SUNDAY,
DECEMBER 21ST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011-017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ024-033.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...BAUCO
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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