120
FXUS61 KCTP 120031
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
*SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
*ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ARCTIC BLAST
*SIGNS OF A WARMER PATTERN CHANGE ON THE HORIZON BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
00Z/7PM EST UPDATE: TRANSIENT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80
CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUING THESE ON FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY
SHRINKING IN COVERAGE AND BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO NW PA.
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO LIMIT ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH/EAST OF THE I-80/I-99 CORRIDOR AND
GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WHILE
UPSLOPE SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER CAMBRIA/SOMERSET OVER THE NEXT
TWO-THREE HOURS; THE BULK OF ACCUMULATION IS OVER FOR THIS
EVENT, THUS HAVE WENT AHEAD AND EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS THE LAURELS THIS EVENING. SOME RESIDUAL WET
ROADWAYS LINGER BASED ON WEBCAMS, THUS THOSE TRAVELING WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR WET PATCHES ON UNTREATED
ROADS THAT COULD LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ADVISORY AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, ISSUED 2:33 PM 12/11/2025:
COLD ADVECTION WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN SEVERAL
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/BANDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) AND OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS/BANDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WE ADDED TIOGA COUNTY TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AND ISSUED SPS
FOR N. LYCOMING AND SULLIVAN TO HIGHLIGHT A WELL DEFINED,
ELONGATED LES BAND EXTENDING FROM LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF CPA INTO THE POCONOS. RWIS/AWOS STATIONS NEAR AND ALONG
ROUTE 6/15 CONFIRMED SHARP DROPS IN VIS ALONG WITH QUICK BURSTS
OF HEAVY SNOW. NO CHANGES TO LES WARNING AND WINTER WX ADVY
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NW ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.
GUSTY WINDS PEAKING IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE AND PROMOTING AREAS
OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO LOOSEN UP.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LES OVER NW PA SHOULD FADE/FLAKE OUT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BRING LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
BACKING FLOW WITH HEIGHT. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY OVERALL
THANKS TO BRIEFLY VISITING HIGH PRESSURE WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS,
LIGHTER WINDS, AND MAX TEMPS +3-6F WARMER VS. THURSDAY.
A SFC LOW >1000MB TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES (MUCH
WEAKER THAN THE ONE LIFTING TO THE NORTH OF MAINE) LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT WAA SNOW (<1") DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
INTO THE NW MTNS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR,
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL STREAK AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS FCST TO DIG/AMPLIFY AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD AND SHOULD DRIVE
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE DRAGGING A POCKET OF -20C AIR AT
850MB INTO SOUTHWEST PA/WV BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ODDS ARE RISING FOR A BROAD AREA OF EXPANDING/ACCUMULATING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS CPA. NBM PROBS FOR
>3" ARE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN LAURELS AND SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR
ENSURES SNOW CHARACTER WILL BE VERY DRY AND FLUFFY.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL DROP BY 10-20 DEGREES VS. SATURDAY WITH
MEAN DEPARTURES FROM CLIMO ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES. A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO THE DAILY RECORD LOW MAX.
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPS WILL SEND MIN WIND CHILLS NEAR
AND BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/AM MONDAY.
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRUSH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK; OTHERWISE THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A MID
TO LATE DECEMBER THAW AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MILDER SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROUGHING SHIFTED WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. DRY WX IS FAVORED TUE-THU WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TOWARD THE
40-50F RANGE LATE IN THE WEEK - POSSIBLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIKELY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO BFD THROUGH ~06Z BEFORE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO INDICATE
LOWER PROBABILITIES IN SNOWFALL AT THE AIRFIELD. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR, COULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE WITH EVEN SOME
OBSERVATIONS PEAKING UP TO VFR; HOWEVER, GENERALLY EXPECT THESE
TO BE MINIMAL BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARDS MVFR WITH SOME IFR IF
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE ABLE TO GET INTO THE AIRFIELD. FURTHER
EAST, IPT WILL BE NEXT UP FOR CONCERNS WITH THE NORTHERN SNOW
SHOWERS; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
FEATURES GIVEN LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE BASED OFF OF RECENT
OBSERVATIONS. THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME
SNOWFALL BUT HAVE BROUGHT BACK MENTIONS CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND HIGHLIGHTED A TWO HOUR WINDOW WHERE THIS IS
MOST PLAUSIBLE BASED OFF OF RECENT OBSERVATIONS/RADAR. UPSLOPE
SNOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE IN THE MOST RECENT GLAMP
AT JST, SO HAVE ALSO INCREASED SNOW MENTIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE
HOURS WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE EVENING.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MVFR WILL PREVAIL AT
BFD/JST THROUGHOUT MUCH (IF NOT ALL AT BFD) OF THE 00Z TAF
PACKAGE WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL AT BFD IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ~12Z
FRIDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TIMEFRAME
AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. AT JST, LOWER CEILINGS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN IN TERMS OF AVIATION. RECENT GLAMP GUIDANCE HAS
STARTED TO HINT TOWARDS SOME BOUTS OF IFR AT JST BETWEEN 13-18Z
FRIDAY; HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS LIKE A LOWER PROBABILITY (~10-20%)
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BASED ON RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HREF
PROBABILITIES IN CEILINGS BELOW 700FT AGL, THUS HAVE KEPT ANY
IFR MENTIONS OUT OF THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MON...SNOW BECOMES CONFINED TO N/W PA, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...LINGERING SHOWERS NW PA EARLY BEFORE TRENDING DRY ACROSS
THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON SUNDAY,
DECEMBER 21ST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ006-010-
011-017-037.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL/NPB
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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