857
FXUS61 KCTP 120442
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1142 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
*SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT
*ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ARCTIC BLAST
*SIGNS OF A WARMER PATTERN CHANGE ON THE HORIZON BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
TRANSIENT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA,
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING WITH
INTENSITY GRADUALLY ON A DOWNWARD TREND. A COUPLE OF STRONGER
SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL IMPACT THE I-80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 11PM
THURSDAY AND 1AM FRIDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION MENTIONS SHIFT
FURTHER NORTH/WEST. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO OUTLINE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WHERE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE
THROUGH 4AM. AT THIS TIME, NO MODIFICATIONS SEEM TO BE NECESSARY
TO EXISTING WSW PRODUCTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOW SHOWERS
BRINING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS UNDER THE ADVISORY.
00Z HREF CONTINUES TO OUTLINE MODERATE (40-60%) CHANCES OF SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA THROUGH 08Z/3AM EST FRIDAY BEFORE CHANCES
BEGIN A STEADY DECLINE SUPPORTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MENTIONS
AFTER SUNRISE. OUTSIDE OF FAR WESTERN WARREN COUNTY, THE BULK OF
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WELL-BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER.
IN TERMS OF WINDS, THE HIGHEST WIND GUST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WAS REPORTED AT LANCASTER AIRPORT (KLNS) AT 48 MPH LATE
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH MULTIPLE STATIONS ACROSS THE REGION
REPORTING OVER 40 MPH READINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS HAVE
DRASTICALLY DROPPED OFF ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
REPORTING WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 20KT AS OF 04Z/11PM EST.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA CONTINUES THESE WINDS ON A DECREASING
TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHT INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE
ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF LIGHT WAA SNOW (LESS
THAN 1" OF ACCUMULATION) DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE INTO
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL
TIME COMPARED TO RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE, THUS HAVE MENTIONS
BEGINNING SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR,
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL STREAK AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS FCST TO DIG/AMPLIFY AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD AND SHOULD DRIVE
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE DRAGGING A POCKET OF -20C AIR AT
850MB INTO SOUTHWEST PA/WV BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ODDS ARE RISING FOR A BROAD AREA OF EXPANDING/ACCUMULATING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS CPA. NBM PROBS FOR
>3" ARE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN LAURELS AND SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR
ENSURES SNOW CHARACTER WILL BE VERY DRY AND FLUFFY.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL DROP BY 10-20 DEGREES VS. SATURDAY WITH
MEAN DEPARTURES FROM CLIMO ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES. A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO THE DAILY RECORD LOW MAX.
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPS WILL SEND MIN WIND CHILLS NEAR
AND BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/AM MONDAY.
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRUSH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK; OTHERWISE THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A MID
TO LATE DECEMBER THAW AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MILDER SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROUGHING SHIFTED WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. DRY WX IS FAVORED TUE-THU WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TOWARD THE
40-50F RANGE LATE IN THE WEEK - POSSIBLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT.
AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIKELY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO BFD THROUGH ~06Z BEFORE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO INDICATE
LOWER PROBABILITIES IN SNOWFALL AT THE AIRFIELD. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR, COULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE WITH EVEN SOME
OBSERVATIONS PEAKING UP TO VFR; HOWEVER, GENERALLY EXPECT THESE
TO BE MINIMAL BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARDS MVFR WITH SOME IFR IF
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE ABLE TO GET INTO THE AIRFIELD. FURTHER
EAST, IPT WILL BE NEXT UP FOR CONCERNS WITH THE NORTHERN SNOW
SHOWERS; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE
FEATURES GIVEN LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE BASED OFF OF RECENT
OBSERVATIONS. THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME
SNOWFALL BUT HAVE BROUGHT BACK MENTIONS CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND HIGHLIGHTED A TWO HOUR WINDOW WHERE THIS IS
MOST PLAUSIBLE BASED OFF OF RECENT OBSERVATIONS/RADAR. UPSLOPE
SNOW APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE IN THE MOST RECENT GLAMP
AT JST, SO HAVE ALSO INCREASED SNOW MENTIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE
HOURS WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE EVENING.
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MVFR WILL PREVAIL AT
BFD/JST THROUGHOUT MUCH (IF NOT ALL AT BFD) OF THE 00Z TAF
PACKAGE WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SNOW SHOWER
POTENTIAL AT BFD IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ~12Z
FRIDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TIMEFRAME
AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. AT JST, LOWER CEILINGS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERN IN TERMS OF AVIATION. RECENT GLAMP GUIDANCE HAS
STARTED TO HINT TOWARDS SOME BOUTS OF IFR AT JST BETWEEN 13-18Z
FRIDAY; HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS LIKE A LOWER PROBABILITY (~10-20%)
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BASED ON RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HREF
PROBABILITIES IN CEILINGS BELOW 700FT AGL, THUS HAVE KEPT ANY
IFR MENTIONS OUT OF THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MON...SNOW BECOMES CONFINED TO N/W PA, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...LINGERING SHOWERS NW PA EARLY BEFORE TRENDING DRY ACROSS
THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON SUNDAY,
DECEMBER 21ST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ006-010-
011-017-037.
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...NPB
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL/NPB
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/NPB
AVIATION...NPB
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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