364
FXUS61 KCTP 121059
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
559 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
*FAIR, GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MUCH LOWER
WIND GUSTS
*A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST AND LOCALLY
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NW PA
*SIGNS OF A WARMER PATTERN CHANGE ON THE HORIZON BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS NW LLVL FLOW CONTINUES WITH
THE FLAT 850 MB RIDGE STILL WAY OFF TO OUR WEST. THE BASE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FALL TO 3 KFT AGL OR LESS TODAY, BUT THE
TOP OF THE SHALLOW STRATOCU CLOUDS WILL STILL BE COLD ENOUGH AND
RESIDE WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DGZ. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
WILL LIKELY BE 1/2 INCH OR LESS.
OTHERWISE, MORNING SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH CLOUDS AND CREATE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NW BREEZE TODAY (BUT MUCH LESS GUSTY
THAN YESTERDAY).
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 3 DEG F HIGHER THAN THURSDAY, BUT
THE MUCH LOWER WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL NOTABLE WARMER.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THICKENING LAYERED CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF LIGHT WAA SNOW (LESS THAN 1" OF
ACCUMULATION) DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL
TIME COMPARED TO RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE, THUS HAVE MENTIONS
BEGINNING SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR,
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL STREAK AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH
IS FCST TO DIG/AMPLIFY AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD AND SHOULD DRIVE
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WHILE DRAGGING A POCKET OF -20C AIR AT
850MB INTO SOUTHWEST PA/WV BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ODDS ARE RISING FOR A BROAD AREA OF EXPANDING/ACCUMULATING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS CPA. NBM PROBS FOR
>3" ARE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN LAURELS AND SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR
ENSURES SNOW CHARACTER WILL BE VERY DRY AND FLUFFY.
AS THIS COLDER AIR POURS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER (MID TO
UPPER 30S F) WATER OF LAKE ERIE, ANOTHER BOUT OF SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FOR OUR NW MTNS - WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTY AND
DESERVING OF A WINT STORM WATCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THOSE 2
COUNTIES.
MAX TEMPS SUNDAY WILL DROP BY 10-20 DEGREES VS. SATURDAY WITH
MEAN DEPARTURES FROM CLIMO ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES. A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO THE DAILY RECORD LOW MAX.
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPS WILL SEND MIN WIND CHILLS NEAR
AND BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/AM MONDAY.
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRUSH THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK; OTHERWISE THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A MID
TO LATE DECEMBER THAW AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MILDER SW
FLOW ALOFT WITH MEAN TROUGHING SHIFTED WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. DRY WX IS FAVORED TUE-THU WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TOWARD THE
40-50F RANGE LATE IN THE WEEK - POSSIBLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
GENERALLY MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT BFD AND JST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR EXPECTED AFTER
18-21Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT UNV DURING
THE PREDAWN AND AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. A LONE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF UNV THROUGH 09-10Z. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE W AND BECOME LESS GUSTY INTO FRI. MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z SAT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. SNOW
HEAVIEST ALONG/WEST OF ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH SECONDARY MAX IN
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
MON...SNOW BECOMES CONFINED TO N/W PA, RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...LINGERING SHOWERS NW PA EARLY BEFORE TRENDING DRY ACROSS
THE AREA.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON SUNDAY,
DECEMBER 21ST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR PAZ004-005.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/NPB
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/NPB
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/NPB
AVIATION...COLBERT/NPB
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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