441
FXUS61 KCTP 131739
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1239 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
* A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING, THOUGH MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST AND EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST AND LOCALLY
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW ACROSS NW PA.
* THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY ON SUNDAY LEADING TO
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WHEN COMBINED WITH THE COLD
AIR.
* A PERIOD OF MILDER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AHEAD, BEFORE COLDER CONDITIONS FOR LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON, SOME PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES
NOTED BY RADAR. THE WIND SHIFT LINE PUSHING INTO WESTERN NY
AT THE CURRENT TIME.
TIMING OF THE MORE STEADY SNOW WITH THE STRONG JET DYNAMICS
STILL LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND OVERSPREAD THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS NOTED ABOVE, SNOW WILL OVERSPEAD THE EAST THIS EVENING.
DID EDGE SNOW AMTS UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST A BIT NEAR THE
MD, PA BORDER BUT STILL IN THE ADVISORY LEVEL. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING FAST, AND WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY, WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS.
WEATHER AND POP GRIDS SIMILAR TO EARLIER FCST. WIND GUST TO
AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW EVENTS, WHERE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL DROP BY 10-20 DEGREES VS. SATURDAY WITH MEAN DEPARTURES
FROM CLIMO ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES. A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD SEE HIGHS CLOSE TO THE DAILY RECORD LOW MAX. ACROSS THE
HIGHER SPOTS IN SOMERSET COUNTY AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SPOTS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS
MIGHT BE NEEDED. STILL A WAYS OUT.
LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH COULD BRING A
FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW OF MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SOME SPOTS WILL HAVE READINGS IN THE 40S.
A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY WILL EDGE THINGS BACK DOWN SOME, BUT NOT
THE REALLY COLD THAT HAS BEEN TYPICAL THIS MONTH SO FAR. THE
MONTH HAS BEEN NEARLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL UP TO THIS
POINT, WHICH IS NEARLY HALF OF DECEMBER.
ALWAYS NEED TO WATCH THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING WITH SUCH
A PATTERN. WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVING AT A FAST CLIP.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
MVFR CIGS SPREADING INTO UNV AND IPT BY 11-16Z. ANY SNOW DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. JST HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND IFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS PRIOR TO 21Z. AS STEADIER SNOW MOVES IN AFTER
SUNSET, A 4-8HR PERIOD OF LIFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JST.
IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT BFD AND AOO TONIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE
LOWER FOR IPT AND UNV AS SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AS
PRECIP CROSSES THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF
FORCING IS PROGGED TO INITIATE AN AREA OF STEADY LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY, LIKELY IMPACTING MDT AND
LNS WITH IFR VSBYS AFTER 02Z SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH 07-09Z.
LNS WILL LIKELY BE WORSE THAN MDT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FALLING TO OUR SE (PHILLY/DC).
IT WILL GET WINDY (GUSTS 25-35KT) ON SUN AND INTO EARLY SUN
NIGHT AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN. THE WESTERN TERMINALS (BFD AND
JST) MAY HAVE A FEW HOUR BREAK SUN AM WITH LITTLE SNOW BEFORE
LAKE EFFECT KICKS BACK IN, AND CIGS/VSBYS DROP AGAIN SUN LATE
AM/AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...SHSN/IFC LINGER IN WESTERN HIGHLANDS. MVFR CIGS/ISOLD
SHSN AOO/UNV. MVFR/VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. GUSTY WEST WIND.
MON...MVFR W/SCT SHSN BFD, NO SIG WX ELSEWHERE.
TUE-WED...NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER (SOLSTICE) BEGINS AT 10:03 A.M. ON SUNDAY,
DECEMBER 21ST.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004-005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ010-017-
024-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN/BOWEN
NEAR TERM...MARTIN/BOWEN
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN/BOWEN
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...GARTNER/COLBERT
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
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