965
FXUS61 KCTP 021025
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS, MAINLY CLOSE TO THE NY BORDER.
* A COUPLE QUICK-HITTING SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
* TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS UP NORTH AND LOW 20S CLOSE TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
OVERCAST SKIES HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING ANY
FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND ALSO GENERATED GARDEN VARIETY SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG, NORTH, AND WEST OF
THE I-99/I-80 CORRIDOR.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN
NORTHWEST PA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN EXTREME
NORTHWEST WARREN COUNTY WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 4PM/21Z. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, A COATING OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS I-80 AND I-99. IT
WILL BE BREEZY ONCE AGAIN TODAY, THOUGH LESS SO THAN THE PAST
FEW. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 20 TO THE MIDDLE 30S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON A LARGE SCALE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING THIS WEEKEND. IN THE MIDST OF
THIS GENERAL TREND, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND BRING A PATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN PA. A
SURFACE LOW COMING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US THIS WEEKEND
WOULD NEED TO TREND SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO CREATE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME, THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL PICK UP <2" AT MOST, WHICH IS NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY EXTRA ATTENTION/WWAS. ADDITIONAL PHASING/A
MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST PA, BUT A DRY SOLUTION IS FAVORED THERE AT THIS POINT.
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT, THE WEEKEND WILL SEE EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES DAY OVER DAY. SATURDAY SEES
HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, IN THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S, WITH SUNDAY
GETTING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID
20S TO UPPER 30S. CLOUD SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WIND ON SUNDAY COULD
YIELD SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF I-81.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WAVY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A BIT
MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. SIMILAR TO THE SATURDAY PM - SUNDAY
SYSTEM, THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN NY AND HARDLY ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED S OF I-80.
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM, UPPER RIDGING REALLY
BEGINS TO BUILD AND SURFACE WINDS WILL COME OUT OF THE SOUTH
THROUGH MIDWEEK. MAXES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL RUN MOSTLY
IN THE 40S. SOME LUCKY TOWNS ALONG AND S OF THE TURNPIKE WILL
BREACH 50F ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN AS THE
FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SKIES WENT FROM CLEAR TO CLOUDY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES RATHER QUICKLY LAST EVENING, THEN MOST OF THE SNOW
ENDED JUST AS QUICK AS IT STARTED, A SHORT TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERALL MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST, BASED ON OBS AND
RADER.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A NW FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SOME
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANYTHING FURTHER EAST AT SITES
LIKE IPT, MDT, AND LNS.
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE A BIT LESS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING, WHEN THE
FLOW BACKS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY AND WARMING ALOFT SETS
IN.
NOTE: VISIBILITY AT BFD MISSING, PARTS ON ORDER.
ALSO NOT SEEING OBS IN OUR SYSTEM BUT CAN STILL CALL THE
SITE AT BFD FOR UP TO DATE DATA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN..WEAK CLIPPERS PASSING TO OUR NORTH WILL OCCASIONALLY
BRING REDUCTIONS AT BFD AND JST, WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS
ELSEWHERE.
MON-TUE... MAINLY VFR AREAWIDE.
CLIMATE
2025 CLOSED OUT WITH MANY SMALL SNOWFALLS ACROSS CENTRAL PA, BUT
IT WAS A MAINLY DRIER THAN NORMAL DEC.
THE YEARLY SUMMARIES SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES WERE VERY MUCH NEAR
NORMAL WHEN SPREAD OUT THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE YEAR. JAN WAS
COLDER THAN NORMAL, THEN WE SWUNG TO WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR
MARCH. AFTER A BRIEF COLD SHOT IN EARLY APRIL, WE REBOUNDED
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH. MAY AND JUNE WERE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL, BUT SOME RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
SHOWED UP IN LATE JUNE. JULY AND MUCH OF AUGUST WERE NEAR
NORMAL, BUT TEMPS DIPPED SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF AUG AND FIRST
PART OF SEPT. THE LATTER HALF OF SEPT WAS VERY MILD WITH A FEW
DAYS NEAR RECORDS. OCT AND NOV WERE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS, BUT
DEC WAS COLD. EXCEPT FOR ONE BIG SPIKE TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON
THE 19TH.
WE DID HAVE A VERY DRY START TO THE YEAR (AND LOW SNOWFALL
TOTALS) IN MUCH OF PA. THE EARLY DEFICITS LED TO DROUGHT
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE YEAR, DESPITE A FAIRLY CLOSE-TO-NORMAL
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST (LOWER SUSQUEHANNA AND
DELAWARE VALLEYS)) EARLY IN THE YEAR WERE LARGELY ERASED, BUT
THEN RETURNED/SHIFTED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE SUMMER AND SPREAD SLOWLY TO
COVER MUCH OF THE STATE LATE IN THE YEAR. STARTING IN EARLY DEC,
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA HAS BEEN UNDER INTO A DROUGHT WATCH.
SEE THE ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARIES (CLA) FOR SOME DETAILED INFO
FOR EACH OF OUR FIVE LONG-TERM CLIMATE REPORTING STATIONS.
CLAMDT, CLAIPT, CLAAOO, CLABFD AND CLAJST.
MUCH MORE INFO INCLUDING DATA PLOT AND GRAPHS CAN BE MADE ON THE
FLY BY GOING TO: "WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE" AND CLICKING ON THE
"CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER" TAB JUST ABOVE THE FRONT-PAGE MAP.
THAT WILL TAKE YOU TO THE "NOWDATA" TAB. SELECT OPTIONS THERE TO
SEE A MYRIAD OF INFO ON PAST WEATHER AND HOW IT RELATES TO
LONG-TERM NORMALS. THE CURRENT PERIOD OF NORMALS IS THE 30 YEARS
FROM 1990-2020. WE HAVE A FEW SITES THAT HAVE DATA BACK MORE
THAN 120 YEARS (WILLIAMSPORT, HARRISBURG, AND STATE COLLEGE).
SOME DETAILED HISTORICAL SNOWFALL INFO, INCLUDING PAST SEASONAL
SNOW TOTAL MAPS, IS ALSO AVAILABLE BY GOING TO
"WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE/MOREWATER" AND CLICKING ON THE
"SNOWFALL INFO" TAB.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ004.
SYNOPSIS...BANGHOFF
NEAR TERM...BANGHOFF
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...DANGELO
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