490
FXUS61 KCTP 030055
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
755 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
* LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
EVENING.
* A COUPLE QUICK-HITTING SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PA.
* TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING, EVENTUALLY COMING
TO AN END OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NORTHWEST PA THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW, WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS OVER THE NORTH AND WEST TO NEAR
20 IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
ON A LARGE SCALE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING THIS WEEKEND. IN THE MIDST OF
THIS GENERAL TREND, A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND BRING A PATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN PA. A
SURFACE LOW COMING UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US THIS WEEKEND
WOULD NEED TO TREND SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO CREATE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME, THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL PICK UP <2" AT MOST, WHICH IS NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY EXTRA ATTENTION/WWAS. ADDITIONAL PHASING/A
MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW COULD BRING SOME SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST PA, BUT A DRY SOLUTION IS FAVORED THERE AT THIS POINT.
FROM A TEMPERATURE STANDPOINT, THE WEEKEND WILL SEE EVER SO
SLIGHTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES DAY OVER DAY. SATURDAY SEES
HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, IN THE LOW 20S TO MID 30S, WITH SUNDAY
GETTING BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID
20S TO UPPER 30S. CLOUD SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH A DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WIND ON SUNDAY COULD
YIELD SUNSHINE SOUTHEAST OF I-81.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WAVY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A BIT
MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. SIMILAR TO THE SATURDAY PM - SUNDAY
SYSTEM, THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN NY AND HARDLY ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED S OF I-80.
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM, UPPER RIDGING REALLY
BEGINS TO BUILD AND SURFACE WINDS WILL COME OUT OF THE SOUTH
THROUGH MIDWEEK. MAXES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL RUN MOSTLY
IN THE 40S. SOME LUCKY TOWNS ALONG AND S OF THE TURNPIKE WILL
BREACH 50F ON WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS THURSDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK, WITH RAIN AS THE
FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL PA TROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH MVFR OR LOWER CIGS PERSISTING AT BFD AND JST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AND SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AT AOO AND UNV FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING THE VSBY
DOWN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AT BFD, BUT THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT
THE AIRFIELD IS INOP WITH PARTS ON ORDER, ESTIMATED TO BE
REPAIRED EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN VSBY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER, DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS HELPING THE SKIES BECOME CLEAR.
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN
LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
OUTLOOK...
SUN..LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W BRING REDUCTIONS AT BFD
AND JST, WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ELSEWHERE.
MON...LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH EARLY, OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR.
TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE N/W, LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
CLIMATE
2025 CLOSED OUT WITH MANY SMALL SNOWFALLS ACROSS CENTRAL PA, BUT
IT WAS A MAINLY DRIER THAN NORMAL DEC.
THE YEARLY SUMMARIES SHOW THAT TEMPERATURES WERE VERY MUCH NEAR
NORMAL WHEN SPREAD OUT THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE YEAR. JAN WAS
COLDER THAN NORMAL, THEN WE SWUNG TO WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR
MARCH. AFTER A BRIEF COLD SHOT IN EARLY APRIL, WE REBOUNDED
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH. MAY AND JUNE WERE
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL, BUT SOME RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
SHOWED UP IN LATE JUNE. JULY AND MUCH OF AUGUST WERE NEAR
NORMAL, BUT TEMPS DIPPED SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF AUG AND FIRST
PART OF SEPT. THE LATTER HALF OF SEPT WAS VERY MILD WITH A FEW
DAYS NEAR RECORDS. OCT AND NOV WERE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMALS, BUT
DEC WAS COLD. EXCEPT FOR ONE BIG SPIKE TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH ON
THE 19TH.
WE DID HAVE A VERY DRY START TO THE YEAR (AND LOW SNOWFALL
TOTALS) IN MUCH OF PA. THE EARLY DEFICITS LED TO DROUGHT
CONDITIONS LATER IN THE YEAR, DESPITE A FAIRLY CLOSE-TO-NORMAL
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST (LOWER SUSQUEHANNA AND
DELAWARE VALLEYS)) EARLY IN THE YEAR WERE LARGELY ERASED, BUT
THEN RETURNED/SHIFTED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE SUMMER AND SPREAD SLOWLY TO
COVER MUCH OF THE STATE LATE IN THE YEAR. STARTING IN EARLY DEC,
MUCH OF CENTRAL PA HAS BEEN UNDER INTO A DROUGHT WATCH.
SEE THE ANNUAL CLIMATE SUMMARIES (CLA) FOR SOME DETAILED INFO
FOR EACH OF OUR FIVE LONG-TERM CLIMATE REPORTING STATIONS.
CLAMDT, CLAIPT, CLAAOO, CLABFD AND CLAJST.
MUCH MORE INFO INCLUDING DATA PLOT AND GRAPHS CAN BE MADE ON THE
FLY BY GOING TO: "WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE" AND CLICKING ON THE
"CLIMATE AND PAST WEATHER" TAB JUST ABOVE THE FRONT-PAGE MAP.
THAT WILL TAKE YOU TO THE "NOWDATA" TAB. SELECT OPTIONS THERE TO
SEE A MYRIAD OF INFO ON PAST WEATHER AND HOW IT RELATES TO
LONG-TERM NORMALS. THE CURRENT PERIOD OF NORMALS IS THE 30 YEARS
FROM 1990-2020. WE HAVE A FEW SITES THAT HAVE DATA BACK MORE
THAN 120 YEARS (WILLIAMSPORT, HARRISBURG, AND STATE COLLEGE).
SOME DETAILED HISTORICAL SNOWFALL INFO, INCLUDING PAST SEASONAL
SNOW TOTAL MAPS, IS ALSO AVAILABLE BY GOING TO
"WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE/MOREWATER" AND CLICKING ON THE
"SNOWFALL INFO" TAB.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BANGHOFF/BAUCO
NEAR TERM...BAUCO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
LONG TERM...DANGELO/BANGHOFF
AVIATION...COLBERT/BOWEN
CLIMATE...DANGELO
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